Polish the Skin Off AAPL

In a frantic effort to polish the Apple, Tim Cook has polished the skin off the Apple and it's starting to brown. Acidulated water please.

While people are looking at earnings reports, sales figures, and charts and graphs, there are more important indicators of Apple's health that I call Markers.


MARKER ONE:

It all began with something Mr. Cook said that he should have said in his head before saying it aloud.

This is what I heard,

Apple is fine.  The problems come from 
The China slowdown
Tariffs.
The slowing global economy
The trade war.
But Apple is doing fine.

The Analogy?

General Motors is doing fine. The real problem is that people are buying fewer cars: Millennials are using ride shares and older people are keeping their cars longer.  But General Motors is doing fine.


MARKER TWO:

When Tim Cook said, I want Apple's legacy to be that we cared about people.  True, there is a major plus to the Apple Watch saving peoples lives.  But the success of this comes about only if Apple is in good health.  (Hold that thought)


Day 1.  What I heard: People don't have to worry about their information.  We are a manufacturing company. We make machines. We don't store data.

Day 2. What I heard:  We are going into the health care industry.  We will have access to all your personal health and financial information.


MARKER THREE

False Analogies:

What I heard:  General Motors saying to Jim Cramer, "We aren't going to release the number of units sold.  It doesn't make sense.  We make so many different brands at so many different price points.  We make Pontiacs and Oldsmobiles. We make Buick Electras and Skylarks.  We make the Chevy Impala, and the Caprice, and the Bel Aire.  We make the Cadillac Sedan Deville, the Coup Deville, the Eldorado, The Seville.  It doesn't make sense to release the number of cars we sell.  If you go to the supermarket and put food in your cart and get to the checkout, the cashier doesn't ask, how many items do you have in your cart.

Would you buy that?



MARKER FOUR

Some stuff various people said on CNBC when discussing Apple.

I-Phone growth is stagnant.  They will have to raise prices.

Apple won't always be the leader of the pack.

They said they will be moving into Emerging Markets.  People in Emerging Markets can't afford a $1000. phone.

We are selling services. Seriously?  With a flat growth curve in phone sales.

Apple is the first Trillion Dollar Company.
Apple was a Trillion Dollar Company.  Then, Apple dropped to $700 Million.

Jim Cramer said, "I used to pay a G for an EKG. Now I get it for Free.  [Shop at Crazy Eddie's. His prices are insane.] This reminds me of Ackman selling Penney Stocks.



MARKER FIVE


Tim Cook admits his mistakes.  He admits he missed the boat on Netflix.  He also missed the boat on Time Warner.  On CNBC it was reported that the Apple board discussed buying Time Warner in 2015.  Slim Fairview wrote the article saying Apple should buy Time Warner 11. February 2013.
Two year is a long time in Tech.


MARKER SIX

We are developing original content.
Everyone is developing original content.


MARKER SEVEN

Name calling.

The haters, the haters, the haters.
Seriously?  Anyone who has doubts about Apple is suddenly a hater.  Name calling is a weapon in the arsenal of a twelve year old.  Repudiate the reasons for concern.  Don't attack those who are concerned



Sometimes the analysis has more to do with numbers.

What happens when a Chinese Tech Wizard invents 
"The Pomegranate"?

I wrote in a review, if Ron Johnson had read only the first three pages of Sandy Richardson's Book, 
Business Results Revolution, he would still be CEO at JCP.

I also wrote, On pages 44 and 45 Richardson demonstrates how to address the issues confronting Tim Cook and Apple.

I was going to quote the second and third paragraphs on page 45.  Instead, read the review, read the book.  It's not that hard.


Sincerest regards,

Slim.


If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Google Pixelbook and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.  Slim

Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA
18072

Copyright © 2019  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.

Global Economic Recovery

The obituary of Mr. John C. Bogle, who transformed the investment industry, contained the following quote: "You get what you don't pay for. Costs matter." This is the underlying principle of "Forming an E 20 Group of Nations" and "Solving the Emerging Economic Crisis" Natural Resources are what Emerging Nations have to invest. That and the time and talent of their citizens. Emerging Nations should be circumspect about the cost of making these investments. This was the caveat about Emerging Nations doing business with The European Union (Germany/Merkel) and with the G 20. There is a steep cost to surrendering autonomy. A cost borne by Italy and Greece. Too many people act like global slowdowns are caused by Sunspots or meteor showers. Global slowdowns are nothing more than a retrenchment analogous to profit taking in the stock market investment paradigm: Buy low, sell high," When the global economy slows down to a level sufficient to trigger reinvestment, the reinvestment will occur and the global economy will rise.

This is not a global conspiracy.  This is the nature of the beast.
The metaphor.  We have an investor, Warren Buffet who heads up Berkshire Hathaway.  Their shares sell at $300,000.  This is too high for an average investor.  However, if there was a stock split: 1000 to 1, then someone holding one share of BH would now have 1000 shares each worth $300.  This is a more manageable level for investors.  This was not uncommon half a century ago.  The stocks become affordable, people invest, the stocks rise. The Global Cash Holdings (in Trillions of dollars) are waiting for the global economy to go low enough to where bargains are to be found enabling those with the money to invest, to purchase a greater share of what is available.  They can invest at a very large discount.  This, of course, is how a smaller number of people end up owning a larger segment of the global economy. This is another reason why Emerging Nations should form Economic Unions and a Union of Emerging Economic Unions.  And beware the cost. "You get what you don't pay for.  Costs matter." 
John C. Bogle. Sincerest regards,,
Slim.

If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note. Sincerely, Slim.

Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072
Copyright (c) 2019
All rights reserfved.