Tuesday, August 22, 2017

The Media versus the Viewer

The Media versus the Viewer


Binge-Casting

Over-Casting

Flip-Casting


 
Binge-Casting

When the media broadcasts episode after episode of a series for several hours.
This is not to be confused with a marathon. A marathon is an event. Binge-Casting is part of the regular programming schedule.

Some examples of this are:

Say Yes to the Dress
My 600 lb. Life.

Other examples are rebroadcasting episodes of "The Real Housewives" or the running of Flip or Flop
Fixer Upper
Property Brothers

Though HGTV seems to run shorter binge sessions.



Over-Casting

Over-casting usually occurs in a binge-casting session when the broadcaster minimizes the current episode to begin the next episode.  In some more aggressive instances, the next episode will begin before the previous episode is over cutting out the punch-line in the previous episode.



Flip-Casting

Flip casting is a process where the ratio of the number minutes of content to the number of minutes of commercials approaches a point where the broadcaster will be airing commercials with content breaks. 

"We interrupt this commercial to bring you programming already in progress."

This format is blunted by airing promos for upcoming programmes to give the appearance of broadcasting content.


The Bing-casting can be seen as saturation marketing.  This, for a product, an industry, a lifestyle, or other offering.

For example:

Wedding dresses and wedding related products and services.  Dresses, catering, photographers, honeymoon destinations.

Another example, this for a lifestyle transformation, is the pursuit of the "open concept" with the celerity of a honey badger.

Open floor plan, open concept, very open, spend time with my guests, keep an eye on the children, and so on.

The result?  Houses that are cheaper to build, hence more affordable.

How can we sell this house without a kitchen wall?
Easy.  Open floor plan.

How can we sell a house without a ceiling?
Easy. Vaulted ceiling.

How can we sell a house without an exterior wall?
Easy.  Wall of windows.

The marketing putsche will guide the viewers--the consumers--to want that too.

Is there anything wrong with an open floor plan?  No.  The open floor plan makes smaller homes appear larger and larger homes more affordable.


With Over-Casting you compress content to free up time for more commercials and more promos for other shows.  This, combined with Flip-Casting, conditions the market to accept advertisements that are less informative but definitely more entertaining.


These techniques are ubiquitous. Almost.

As home remodel shows first became popular the plot was formula.  Smash the walls, smash the counter tops, smash the cupboards.  Before the commercial break, replay the tape with a voice-over to tell the audience what they saw.  After the commercial, replay the tape with a voice-over to tell the audience what they saw.  And this is replayed before the recap at the end.  Audience conditioning, audience acceptance, audience transformation.

To examine this in retrospect, look at the marketing and sale of coffee.

Once coffee came in 16 oz. cans.  Then, 13.5 oz cans. Now?  11.5 oz.  However, ask yourself, how much smaller can a can of coffee get?  Not much.  Hence:  27 oz cans sold at a Sale Price.  Some pricing policy is confusing.  Such as when I found out I can buy 3 small cans of coffee for less that one large one.  I bought 3 small cans of coffee.  However, while I've been drinking green tea, my wife is still drinking coffee.  As a result, I am not checking the price of coffee.  I just did.  Coffee now comes in [approximately] 10 oz. and 24 oz. cans.  And the cans are now plastic containers.

During the coffee price crisis of the late seventies, I heard where some would buy soda instead of drinking coffee.  This despite the fact that the soda was more expensive.  This was not a protest.  This was the result of coffee looking too expensive while soda looked like a less expensive alternative.

And the consumer is not all that tuned in.  Some 30 years ago, while buying coffee, I was checking the price per ounce of a smaller and a larger container of coffee.  This based on the old canard that if you "buy in larger quantities" you save on the unit price.  This did not play out.  I said to my wife, "The coffee in this [the larger] can is more expensive than the coffee in this [the smaller] can." 

A well dressed professional woman had been listening in and watching me.  I said to her, "I was pointing out that The Coffee in this [the larger] can costs more than the coffee in this [the smaller] can."

She looked at one can, then at the other, and said, "That's because that can is larger than the other can."

I thanked her for pointing that out and she walked away.  My wife and I exchanged glances.

But I digress:

There has been a result of this conditioning.

Dining room
Dining area
Formal Dining Area
Open Floor Plan
Open Concept.

Granite counter tops
Stainless Steel Appliances
Upscale Appliances
Bonus Room
Man Cave

And this all plays into the paradigm of

The Flash-Bite

A few decades ago, people spoke about the 5 second sound bite with derision.  Then the 5 second sound-bite morphed into the 2 second sound bite.  Then came MTV with what I all the Flash-Bite.  Two or three second clips: cut to: cut to: cut to.

One Mississippi, two Mississippi, cut to: One Mississippi, two Mississippi, cut to.

The result?

Candlestick, andiron, switch-plate, cut to: cut to: cut to.

Series of interior shots--living room

Chair leg
Cut to:
Lampshade
Cut to:
Cuspidor
Cut to: cut to: cut to.

The flash bite spread to cooking shows.

Egg yolk, lemon slice, teaspoon, Cut to: cut to: cut to.

The media has gone far beyond Bread and Circus.
The now embrace, Loud Noises, Bright Colours, & Shiny Things.

Cooking Shows are now Game Shows.  Everything from Beat the Clock to a Pie in the Face.

The History Channel? The Learning Channel?  Duck Dynasty and Honey Boo Boo.

Is there anything wrong with those shows?  Certainly not.  They are good shows.  They attract an audience.  And you want to sell to that audience.  Heed my admonition.  Marketing to Millennials is a series of loud noises, bright colours, and shiny things.

I sincerely believe that this article should point you in the right direction.  Do your own homework.

Regards,
Slim.

P.S.  If you find anything herein to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Lap Mac and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the Thank You Note.  Slim.

Further reading:

Marketing 1959

Marketing to Millennials

If You Can Label It, You Can Sell It

Marketing Trumps Advertising


Remember:

"The Alchemists tried turning lead into gold and failed.  The Marketing People succeeded by selling lead to the Alchemists." ~ Slim Fairview
The Quotations of Slim Fairview (c) 2017.

Slim.

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Shark Food



Shark Food

In a recently published article, I wrote, beware the datum.  I gave an example of how data is used to manipulate conclusions.


Here is an excerpt.

When I was young, the population was 100,000,000 people.  The population increased by 10,000,000 or 10%. 

Recently, with a population of 300,000,000, the population increased by 15,000,000 people or 5%. 

One report reads, the growth trend in population has increased by 50%.
The population increase went from an increase of 10 million people to 15 million people.

The other report reads that the growth trend in population has decreased by 50%. The population growth rate moved from 10% growth to 5% growth.


I am reminded of this each and every time I hear someone report a number.

Beware the Datum.


Now:

You and 11 friends are at the beach.  One friend says, "let's go swimming."

You don't want to.  You are worried about sharks.

Your friend runs down a list of facts about sharks and shark attacks.

Your chances of being attacked by shark.
Where you are most likely to be attacked by a shark.
The time of year you are most likely to be attacked by a shark.

Your friend convinces everyone it's safe to go into the water.

You are not convinced because you saw a dorsal fin cutting through the water.

Some are concerned.  But your friend goes down the list of facts again and convinces everyone that it is safe to go swimming.

Everyone goes in.  Except for you.

Then, a shark eats one of your friends.  And everyone scrambles to get out of the water.

You say to everyone, "See?  I told you it wasn't safe."

You're friend says,  "I didn't say no one would be eaten.  And besides, the shark only ate one person.  Ten of us got out safely."

"Yes," you reply, "but first everyone had to scramble to get out of the water.  And now everyone has to scramble for a good spot on the beach.  I got my spot while you were all in the water.  And besides, while it's true that the shark only ate one person, the other ten had to scramble to get out of the water.  So they're not swimming either."

You can look at all the statistics you want.  If you see the dorsal fin, you are not going  to go into the water.


Sincerest regards,

Slim.

Copyright (c) 2017  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.

Strategic Thinking


STRATEGIC THINKING:


I learned strategy when I was in the third grade.

We were playing kickball.  Routinely, Jim and Roger or Jim and Greg would be Captains.  After the coin toss, they would choose up their teams.

One day, Greg pulled Jim aside for a brief talk.  Jim came back to announce that he and Greg would be co-captains.

You can easily see that if Jim won the coin toss, he would get first choice.  He would also have the first two picks.

If Roger won the toss, he would actually get second pick.  Nonetheless, if there were 5 good athletes to choose from, regardless of who won the toss, Jim would have the edge.


Now let's Build on that and use the names of the guys at CNBC for clarity.

Let's say, the grownups interfere for our own good. The new paradigm is this:  The teacher puts everyone's name in a hat and chooses a captain.  The one captain is Jon Najarian. The other captain?  Well, when my name is called everyone groans.  I groan.  I win the coin toss and I pick Pete Najarian.  Jon picks Steve Liesman.  I ask Pete, who do I pick?  Guy Adami or Joe Teranova?  Pete says, Pick Joe, because if you pick Guy, Jon will pick Joe.  I say, "but I thought Guy was a better athlete."  Pete says, he is.  But Guy and Jon don't get along.  If you pick Joe, Jon can pick Guy, but they will keep butting heads and that is bad for team moral.  If he picks Scott, you pick Guy.   It will be a win win situation.

These are things I know:

1. I am not athletic.
2. I have no ability to gauge the abilities of the other kids in my class.
3. My classmates won't "follow me" because they know I am not Captain material.

No seven year old boy wants to be Captain of the team.  He wants to be Captain of the winning team.  And if given a choice, he will choose to be a player on the winning team rather than be Captain of the losing team.

Fortunately, I grew up before the "empowerment and dignity crowd" began micro-managing the students' time on the playground.  This is where you learn this stuff.

Regards,

Slim.



Further reading

Marketing 1959



Copyright (c) 2017  Bob Asken
All Rights Reserved.

Thursday, July 6, 2017

TV in the Millennial Age



The paradigm effecting media began with the entrenched attitude of a by-gone era. 

"Talking pictures? No one wants to listen to that chatter. They want to see acting."

"Television? No one wants to squint at that tiny screen. They want the experience of the big screen. The Silver Screen." 

"The Motor Car? Noisy smelly toy for the rich. It'll never replace the horse." 

Next: 

We had channels 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, & 13. But let's keep the math simple. 

100,000,000 viewers, 10 Television stations. Each station has 100,000 viewers and sells advertising time accordingly. 

 The "tech" explosion. We now have 100 stations. Each station has 10,000 viewers. The advertisers spend accordingly. 

Then you have M&A. Then target marketing. Then television companies become part of a large corporation's "agglomeration". 

Now, however, we are dealing with millennials. The market demographic has shifted. It has become more segmented. That, and computers are better able to identify viewers and tailor the advertising to "interest" the viewer and appease the advertiser. Well, assuage the advertiser.


This is analogous to Gillette's new strategy to challenge the competitors who sell razors on-line to men who embrace the scruffy 3-day fashion statement. Their new pricing policy comes across to me as a promotion. 

I read the circular. $3.99 after coupon. Okay. I go to CVS. It appears that the slot for what I want is empty. But I can't find what I'm looking for. There are other models with various prices touted by flashy signs. 

 I speak to a very helpful manager. He gets a circular. It is no real help. It looks different. Maybe I had last weeks circular. (not likely, and not the case.) He offers a substitute. Happy customer. The coupon doesn't scan. They override. The discount is applied. I go home to check the circular. I see the small change. An eye-catching black box with white letters 

Your Final Cost 
$3.99 

is in my circular--not the store circular. That's okay. I got a better razor. Except that it has one of those swivel heads that I don't want. However, for $3.99 it's worth a try as a marketing and product design study.


My suspicions are raised when the manager tells me these blades last longer.  This will last a month--so you don't just use it for a week and toss it.  I know this.  Gillette blades last longer than a month.  My suspicion is raised when the manager and the full page newspaper ad draw attention to the quality of the blades--a given for a long time.


Back to television.  

The media giants are attempting to approach a new market, a new paradigm with old [ b-school] thinking.  I went to b-school.  I can see their doomed course.

What happens when millennials who buy on-line  (Amazon)  buy razors on-line. Pricing will be the issue. That for the few trendy hipsters who still shave.  Our generation is fading away.  Will "razors" go down the path that barber shops did back when hippies grew their hair long and barbers  lost a generation of customers?

Fortunately, the computer can analyze and select the ads tailored to each viewer.  But only companies like Facebook and Google and perhaps, YouTube know that.  The large corporations are trying to solve tomorrows problems with yesterday's thinking.

Marketing to Millennials

Ad Revenues & the Media 


Mob Technology: Retail & the Media


Warmest regards,

Slim.

Slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2017  Bob Asken
All Rights Reserved.

Friday, May 19, 2017

Hillary Redux

Hillary Clinton coulda won.

Hillary Clinton woulda won.

The reason why Hillary didn't win is due only to the strategy that failed.



It was the wrong strategy.  If it were the right strategy, Hillary would be POTUS.

But to prove my point, I will explain the biggest blunders and some of the solutions for the next election and will get an argument from everybody.  Not on the basis of substance.  But by those in hot pursuit of symbolic gestures seeking validation.


Beyond the Presidency, the Democrats failed to reclaim The House, failed to reclaim The Senate.

These are incontrovertible facts.  Not opinions.

Let's get started.



The first thing to touch on is the mea culpa by the media.


WHY?  HOW? 

We failed to predict the outcome of the election.  Why? How?
I know, let's switch the topic of this article to why Donald Trump won, point fingers, vilify the opposition and claim, if not victory, at least the moral high ground.

That speaks volumes.



FIRST OF ALL:

It's called Newton's 3rd Law of Physics.  The pendulum swings both ways.

Now, if you are among the generation of those who ran the campaign, you remember:

Just because it always happens doesn't mean it will happen again.
That's negative.
That's disempowering.
That's disrespectful.
That's self-defeating.

Just because you were right last time, doesn't mean you will be right this time.  Just because you were right this time, doesn't mean you will be right the next time.

The first failure, then, is not the failure to concede the existence of Newton's 3rd Law.  It is the denial of it's validity and refusal to ask,

"Why does this happen?  What can we do about it?"


Routinely, the switch is due to voter dissatisfaction.

"Your ideas failed.  We will try their ideas."
"Their ideas failed.  We will try your ideas again."

Instead, ask:

What are the Republicans selling?
Why do people like what the Republicans are selling?
Is there anything we can co-opt--incorporate SOME of their ideas into our platform to improve our chances of keeping the Oval Office?



FAILED POSTURE

We all know about Donald Trump's record with women.  We also know all about Bill Clinton's record with women.  The attack on Donald Trump did not fizzle out.  The attack had no fizz to begin with.

Let's turn the tables with a Saturday Night Live style skit for the purpose of illumination.  Focus on the lesson only.  Not the lesson you want.  What people really hear. Not what you want people to hear.  Then I will offer the solution.  A learning opportunity.


THE DEBATE

                   
                Wolf Blitzer

Mrs. Clinton, would you like to make an opening statement?


                Mrs. Clinton

Thank you, Wolf.  Yes I would.  My opponent preys on women, he's a misogynist, a degenerate, a pig, he's unfit to be President, let's all hate him. Vote for me.


                Wolf Blitzer

A very well thought out and sensitive opening statement, Mrs. Clinton. Very Presidential.  Now, Mr. Trump, is there any excuse you have for your despicable behavior illuminate by our former first Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton in her brilliant and sensitive opening statement?


                Trump

Well, Mr. Blitzer, the only thing I can say is that I am a little disappointed with my opponents opening statement when you consider that her husband, Bill Clinton, was impeached for worse----


                Mrs. Clinton

There he goes again. There he goes again. Taking the low road, taking the low road. But as my good friend and First Lady said to me, when they go low, you go high.  And I refuse to sink to my opponents level. I'm taking the high road. I'm taking the high road.

                Wolf Blitzer

Good for you Mrs. Clinton.  Thank you for raising the level of this campaign to the American values we cherish and hold so dear.


Now!  Do you see how things can be portrayed?  Don't bitch and moan.  The strategy had no fizz to begin with.  This is the right way to handle the problem.



THE RIGHT WAY.

                Mrs. Clinton

Wolf, I am not going to discuss my opponents record with women because my husband, Bill, was impeached for worse behavior.   But let me emphasise.  I am not Bill Clinton.  I am Hillary Clinton.  I will let the media focus on my opponents record while I stick to the issues and outline for the American people how I intend to solve the problems with Health Care, the Economy, Unemployment, National Security, and the Environment.


If you don't believe me, I will cite someone with rather substantial credentials.

There is a right way and a wrong way to handle that issue.  

As President Lyndon B. Johnson said,

"If you have a problem, shine a light on it."




DEPLORABLES

I'm watching favorable sources on CNN.  Nancy Pelosi is the guest.  Pelosi throws Bill Clinton under the bus.  Pelosi supports part of Trump's Campaign Platform.  "Nafta is bad."

When asked by the presenter,  How do you respond to your critics that you knifed President Obama in the back with your failure to support TPP, APEC, whatever?

Mrs. Pelosi responded, "That's not a fair criticism.  I just wanted to take a closer look.  I didn't want it to be another NAFTA.   NAFTA was bad for the economy.  NAFTA cost American jobs.  NAFTA was a disaster."

Nancy Pelosi said that.

Instead of the Democrats co-opting part of the Trump Campaign, Trump leveraged part of the Democrat's campaign platform inflicted on Hillary by Bernie Sanders.  I am a globalist.  I posted PowerPoint Presentations to support same.

NAFTA was a Bill Clinton deal.  Mrs. Pelosi threw Bill Clinton under the Bus.  There is something else I said.  Hillary Clinton is getting more help from her Republican critics and opponents than she is from her Democratic friends and supporters.


APPEAL TO WOMEN


While Hillary Clinton was attempting to appeal to women, she pulled the rug out from under herself.


Back to the SNL paradigm.

               
                Women in the Commercial

Nafta put my Dad out of work. 
Nafta put my husband out of work. 
Nafta put my brother out of work. 
Nafta put my son out of work. 
They can't find jobs. 

Nafta was bad for the economy,
Nafta cost American jobs,
Nafta was a disaster. 
Nancy Pelosi said so. 
Nafta was a Bill Clinton deal.

How dare you call
Our Dads,
Our husbands,
Our brothers,
Our sons, 

A basket of deplorables?


BUT WAIT. THERE'S MORE.

If unemployed, blue collar, working class white men are out of work and angry, then....

Twice as many unemployed, blue collar, working class black men are out of work and they are twice as angry.  And so they should be.  But I will focus on that specifically later in the article.

The Clinton Campaign ignored the unemployed men, Black and White.  And remember, not only did the African American community refuse to turn out for Hillary Clinton, the African American community also refused to turn out for the Democrats running for Congress.  Need I remind anyone, the Democrats failed to reclaim both or either house of Congress?  Repeatedly!

You don't win elections by ignoring a large voting block. 
A large voting block of unemployed men, Black White, Latino.




WOMEN

President Obama knew he had the support of the Black community.  (Something Clinton and the Democrats did not have).  President Obama needed White votes.  As the old saying goes, when looking for votes:  "Fish where there are fish."

Mrs. Clinton had the Woman Vote. (Almost).  But Hillary Clinton did not fish for votes among unemployed men: Black, White, Latino.


FARE v. FAIR

It's Black History month.  I'm watching one of the C-Span specials.  We are back at the Watts Riots.
A CBS reporter is talking to a Black Woman near "the projects".  She is explaining how hard it is to live, to get by, to feed and care for her children at the end of the month when benefits run out.

The CBS reporter wants to know, aren't there any [programmes, agencies, services] available?

The woman tells the reporter in Plain English......"We don't need no handouts.  We need jobs."

No handouts!  Jobs.  We need jobs.  Jobs!  JOBS! 


In my own blunt way:

Franklin D. Roosevelt paid white men to go to work.
Lyndon B. Johnson paid black men to stay home.

Franklin D. Roosevelt gave Workfare to white men.
Lyndon B. Johnson gave Welfare to black men.




MOMS

I don't know what percentage of mothers have at least one if not more than one son.  Mom's have daughters. Mom's have sons. 


Back to SNL


Fade in:   Seven year old boy sitting on the floor in front of the television set watching a Hillary Clinton campaign ad.

                Little Boy

Mommy, who is that lady and why does she hate me?

                Mommy
Who?


                Little Boy
 

That lady on television.


                Mommy

That's Hilary Clinton.  She wants to be President.  If she wins the election, she will be the first woman President.  She doesn't hate you. Why did you say she hates you?


                Little Boy

Every time I see her she keeps talking about girls and about daughters.  She never says anything about boys. She never says anything about sons.  Mrs. Smith has two boys and a girl.  Mrs. Jones has two girls and a boy,  What about them. Are they voting for Hillary Clinton?

Cut to:  Sepia tone.  Melodramatic Music.  Mommy with anguished, tormented look.


                    V.O

Oh, my.  I never thought of that.  What do we tell our boys?  What do we tell our sons?  Can I say, because little boys are competent and don't need help?  Can I tell him, he has special privileges and little girls get cheated and she's helping the underdogs?  Can I tell him little boys are despicable deplorables?  What do the mothers of sons tell their sons?


Mrs. Clinton won 52% of the woman vote.  Mrs. Clinton lost 48% of the woman vote.  Mrs. Clinton forgot: 

"There are no unintended consequences.  Only unwanted consequences."  ~ Slim Fairview

Deplorables makes a fine sound-bite.  Even if falls short of the high road.  You may be right about Donald Trump.  But you're not attacking Trump.  You're attacking the fathers, sons, husbands, and brothers of the women who vote.  And, as Grandma Millie said on the topic of coming between married people:

"Two heads on one pillow."




THE MEDIA


Before the election, I tweeted, If Donald Trump gets elected, he can thank Wolf Blitzer.

Why? 

The more you say something (outrageous) the more you blunt its impact.


I can see the boys sitting around the lunch table in the Millard P. Fillmore Middle School cafeteria, and giggling over their jokes.  Take out the word President and put in Principal, you're in Middle School. Take out the word Principal and put in the word President, you have late night comedy.

I learned during Sophomore year of high school from a great teacher,  It's not a good thing for Charlie if everyone loves Charlie.  There has to be at least one person in the back of the room who says, I don't like Charlie.  If he knows someone doesn't like him, Charlie will be careful about doing his job.

Take out Charlie and put in Hillary, and you have the same lesson.  Unfortunately, the response fell short.  "We have critics.  What are they saying?  How can we convince them that they are wrong?"

a. Attack our critics
b. Attack their candidate
c. Praise our candidate
e. Address their concerns to relieve their fears.


Mrs. Clinton had too many fans.  Critics were vilified.  No one did the research.  No one did the analysis.  No one addressed the concerns of Trump supporters to alleviate their fears.  And, in plain English,  e-mails, Comey, the FBI, and "crooked Hillary" had nothing to do with it.  Few people cared about the e-mails.  Campaign sound-bites.  News teasers.  Redefine their concerns, address the concerns they don't have, ignore the concerns they do have, lose the election.

On CNN, the focus during President Obama's re-election bid was the birther issue.  Ridiculous, right? But if you keep repeating it, the outrageous claims lose their outrageous punch.  Some people wonder why CNN keeps reporting on the issue.  To ridicule Donald Trump or the Mitt Romney campaign? 

Once, will do it.  By the third time it becomes part of the urban legend.  The claims lose their outrageous impact.  Some, perfectly well-balanced, middle of the road people will wonder why CNN keeps bringing up the issue.   By the way,  the third report, where Donald Trump claimed to have documents, showed up on The Situation Room, and had no documents was the last time I watched The Situation Room.  I don't want "coverage."  I want News.

Coverage.

I have documents.
Come on The Situation Room and show us.

News:

I have documents.
Show us the documents then you can come on The Situation Room.

It is that simple.  But wait, there's more.


In a fine example of linguistic legerdemain, Donald Trump announced:

They started it and I'm going to finish it.  President Barack Obama was born in the United States. Case closed.

Do you remember who started it? 
Do you remember who kept reporting it? 
Do you remember who put an end to it? 
Media professionals are supposed to know how this works.


To understand propaganda, you must go back to ancient Greece [Crete] and the impact of the play Antigone.  Then look at Nazi occupied France and the impact of the restaging of the play Antigone.  The former, was a moral lesson.  However, to stage the play in Nazi occupied France, it had to pass the Nazi censors. 

The Nazi censors read it and said,  "Good. This will teach the people what happens to those who defy authority." 

The French people read it and said, "If this young girl can risk her life, and indeed, lose her life to do what is morally right, that we can risk our lives, give up our lives to resist the occupation. 

Same speech. Different audience.  Different interpretation.

It wasn't the Alt Right that got Trump elected.  It was the Alt Wrong. 

The media failed to do "the leg work". 

The media
Made assumptions, 

Sought data to support their assumptions, and
Validated and reported their theories as news. 
That is not science. That is not reporting. That is not news.  Ideology has nothing to do with it.  Misogyny had nothing to do with it.  Failure to listen had much to do with it. 



FAILURE TO LISTEN: FAILURE TO LEARN


When I was young we learned:

"We may not agree with what they have to say, but they have the right to say it."

These days we teach:

"They may not agree with what we have to say, but we have the right to say it."


We've all heard,  "Your way is not the only way of doing it, you know.  You should try it my way."

Did you ever hear, "My way isn't the only way of doing it, you know.  We should try it your way."

I will now quote the most eloquent of all Presidential Orators....Lyndon B. Johnson, who said,
"I ain't never learned nothing talking."

Then?  He's right.  We should stop talking and listen to them and learn
Now?   He's right.  You should stop talking and listen to us and learn



JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS

Two factors come into play.  The first is the advantage I had in school.

One of the standardized tests we took had the following instructions.

Read the following paragraph, then answer the questions that follow.

The first question was, "In the above paragraph, what is the main point the author is trying to make?"

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Not, what do you think the author is trying to say.
Not, what do you want the author to say.
Not, what do you think the author should be trying to say.

Focus on what the other person is saying.  Try to understand it.  Proceed from there.


The Media mea culpas fell short.
There is no liberal media.
The only factors are

The Quality of the Press
The Credibility of the Press

Perhaps I should have said, "The perceived quality of the press."  The perceived credibility of the press." 

As Kate Bosworth said to Kevin Spacey in the movie, Beyond the Sea,  "People hear what they see."


As my Dad taught me when I was about 8 years old,

"No one agrees with someone else's opinion.  Only his own opinion expressed by someone else."

I remember that every time someone pats me on the back.



ECONOMICS

I am watching a C-Span special for Black History Month.  I learn that Richard Nixon thought entrepreneurship was essential to help the African American Community break the shackles of poverty. 

I remember George Jefferson:  "Moving on up....to the East Side.....to a Deluxe Apartment in the Sky."

If starting your own business was a bad idea, white people would not be doing it.
If starting your own business was a bad idea, immigrants would not be doing it.
The media repeatedly reports on how many new business startups are being started by immigrants, creating jobs.  The media never reports on how many Black Men are starting businesses and creating jobs.


I constantly hear,

"Creative, innovative, high-tech, entrepreneurs."
"Creative, innovative, high-tech, entrepreneurs."
"Creative, innovative, high-tech, entrepreneurs."
"Creative, innovative, high-tech, entrepreneurs."

To understand the economics, let's compare Archie Bunker and George Jefferson.


Through the magic metaphor, Archie Bunker and George Jefferson work at the American Widget Company.  An opening for foreman comes up.  They both apply for the job.  Bunker gets the job....because he is white.  Nonetheless, Jefferson figures there's no real future for him at the American Widget Company, so he leaves to start Jefferson's Dry Cleaners.  Then he opens a second store.  Soon he has four.  Then six.

Meanwhile, back at The Widget Company,  Bunker gets another promotion.  Now, instead of foreman, he becomes Manager,  This is a suit and tie job.  To look good on the job, he takes his clothes to Jefferson's Dry Cleaners. 

Bunker clearly gets a bigger paycheck.  Bunker gets a bigger piece of the pie.  But when Bunker cashes his check he goes to Jefferson's Dry Cleaners to pick up his dry-cleaning.  He takes part of his paycheck, a piece of his bigger piece of the pie, to pay his dry-cleaning bill.

Jefferson pays himself a salary.  But at the end of the day, he also shows a profit. 

Bunker gets a paycheck
Jefferson gets a paycheck and a profit.

Why?

Because, while Bunker gets a bigger piece of the pie, Jefferson owns a piece of the bakery that bakes the pies.

Bunker?      A paycheck
Jefferson?  A paycheck and a profit.


If starting your own business was a bad idea, white people would not be doing it.
If starting your own business was a bad idea, immigrants would not be doing it.


If the Democrats really want to reclaim one or both houses of Congress, if the Democrats want to reclaim the Oval Office, they must address real concerns with pursuit of substantive gains, not symbolic gestures.  And there must be deliverables and measurables.


Recently a New York Times article addressed the North East Train Corridor problems.

Remember the $800 Billion economic stimulus programme?  Remember the laughter?
The shovel ready projects weren't as shovel ready as we thought." Ha ha ha ha ha.

Remember tax hikes on the Billionaires and Billionaires?

Remember what I said earlier?  In the above paragraph.....

The Democrats controlled the House.
The Democrats controlled the Senate
The Democrats controlled the Oval Office.

The Democrats passed the ACA over the opposition of the Republicans.

Main Point?  The Republicans had no power to stop them

The Democrats passed the $800 Billion economic stimulus package over Republican opposition.

Main Point?  The Republicans had no power to stop them

The tax hike on Billionaires and Billionaires?  Nothing.
The Democrats can't blame the Republicans because....The Republicans had no power to stop them.

In any event, it is not the redistribution of wealth that is the issue.  It is the redistribution of the money.

Wealth is what you have.
Money is what you make.

I have historical support.

Henry Ford did not redistribute his wealth.  He gave his employees raises.  He redistributed the money made by the Ford Motor Car Company.

The Labor Movement?   Wage increases did not redistributed the wealth of the owners.  Wage increases redistribute the money earned by the company. 


THE 93% DELUSION. 


A year or so ago, the Economist Robert Reich wrote an article about the 93% tax rate back in the "Golden Days" of America.  The Eisenhower years.

The plausible economist forgets:

When the tax rate was 93%  A Black man earned 50% of a White man's wage.

When the tax rate was 93%  Women were "barefoot and pregnant."

When the tax rate was 93%  Mexicans and Filipinos picked lettuce and grapes for pennies a day.

When the tax rate was 93%  There was no EPA and factories were polluting the air and water.

When the tax rate was 93%  The European economy was in shambles. We were rebuilding Europe.

The well-being described by The Plausible Economist is attributed to the 93% tax rate?  Baloney.

The truth that Reich is describing is a

Racist America
Sexist America
Xenophobic America
Polluted America
Imperialist America.

The 93% taxe rate benefited only one group.  Everyone else was miserable.  The 93% tax rate is a scam. 

President Kennedy, speaking at The Economics Club in October 1962, announced that [while counter-intuitive] cutting taxes increases revenues.  But the taxes were not cut to 73% or 53%  but cut to about 33%.  Overkill to be sure.  But I digress.

The people are beginning to perceive that The Democrats don't want to tax the rich. They want to blame it on the Republicans.



The Democrats and the Republicans have opposite approaches to solving the same problems.  And, being Congress, it is not ironic that they are both wrong.

In plain speak:  You can neither cut your way nor tax your way to prosperity.  The EuroCrisis proves the former, the collapse of the Soviet Union proves the latter.

Hilary coulda won.

Hillary woulda won.

The way was to

Concede the existence of Newton's 3rd Law of Physics.
Analyse why it happens.
Focus on the opponents platform
Select what you can co-opt, incorporate into your own platform: (Market penetration.  Increase Market Share. Revenue (vote) enhancement.)
Fish where there are fish.

Don't trash or vilify, or disparage, or demean angry voters.  (Remember Nancy Pelosi's remarks about the "astroturf" movement.

Address the concerns of angry voters with a bulleted list of how you will fix the problems that make them angry.  In this case.  JOBS.

Einstein said,

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

He also said,  "You don't measure the intelligence of a fish by its ability to climb a tree."

Slim Said.  "If you want someone to climb a tree, hire a cat."


Best of luck

Sincerest regards,

Slim 


P.S.  As always, if you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out MacPro and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the Thank you note

 


Copyright (c) 2017  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.



Wednesday, May 3, 2017

Having it All 101


Backstory.

My parents were never divorced. Still, my Mother went back to work
(After "war work") after my sister started school. Years later, my mother expressed sadness & regret about going to work while my sister and I were still young.

It took a prodigious effort to convince her that she was a great mother and all worked out extremely well. My Mother appeared to be reassured. However, my mother is not the issue here. The real issue is manipulation.

In the mid 70s the country was in the grips of the "self-help" book craze. In other words, we had problems we did not have until we had a solution for them. Like Professor Harold Hill in the Music Man.

The talk show industry went from entertainment to exploitation. Not all, but enough.

The snake-oil sellers created a social paradigm of anxiety that they claimed to be able to cure.

As Phineas said to Harold Hill, "But we don't have any problems in River City." To which Professor Hill replied, "Then we'll have to create some."

The Swiss Writer, Daniel Odier, played the same theme in his series of novels writing under the name, Delacorta

People are coerced into embracing a paradigm.

Remember, some people don't want it all. They only want some. They are made to feel inadequate. Why? So they will buy the book.

The same paradigm is "talk about it" or "go outside your comfort zone."

The only reason why people want you to talk about it, or to go outside your comfort zone is to convince you to do what they want you to do or to convince you to do something you don't want to do. If you wanted to do it, there would be no need to talk about it and you would not be going outside your comfort zone.


  • Some people must go to work
  • Some people want to go to work
  • Some people want to become career employees
  • Other people want to be painters or poets


Each should have the right to pursue what will make her happy and feel fulfilled. Not what will satisfy the need for validation in those who must coerce people to do things in an attempt to feel validation or to sell more books.

As far as I'm concerned: Diet books, get rich quick books, and self-help books don't work.  If they did, then--as a nation--we would all be skinny, rich, and happy.  But we're not.  As a nation, we are fat, poor, and polarized.

To those who object:

"Some people read self-help books because they need self help books.
Others need self-help books because they read self-help books."  ~ Slim Fairview

If someone wants to pursue a goal, she should be allowed to do so. If she needs help, and asks for help, others should freely give it.

Too much of what is going on in our society is not unlike the cliche of the parents who want their children to become Big Executives, when the children want to become actors, or painters, or singers.

Remember the movie "The Dead Poets Society' with Robin Williams?

Sincerest regards,

Slim

Slimfairview@yahoo.com 

Slimviews@gmail.com
 

Copyright (c) 2017 Bob Asken
All rights reserved.

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Lux Class Airline?


When will airlines begin to approach the gap between lavish first class and the private jet industry for people who can afford more than first class but can't afford a private jet. 

 Instead of going BIGGER pick up a "whisper jet" trick it out to approach the private jet Lux Look, and run scheduled luxury flights between "active markets." 

For the purpose of this discussion only, let's say 

New York to Plano Texas or Miami to LA. 

If you plan it right, you can bypass LAX or places like O'Hare or Logan and opt for smaller airports with limousine service to and from City destinations. 

Cheaper than the Private Jet, but "miles" more pleasant than crossing the River Styx to get on an airplane. Macadamia nuts notwithstanding. 

I heard recently, that air travel will double in the next 20 years. So I pondered: 

Will we need twice as many airports or need to make our airports twice as big? Then I heard about the larger planes. 

 Now....imagine 

Check-ins 
Waiting lines 
Wait times 
Lounges
Baggage check-in 
Baggage claims areas on arrival 

Marketing: Find a need and fill it. 

There should be an opportunity in the aforementioned niche market. 

More money than first class or luxury class can satisfy, but not enough money for a private jet; 

That is where Lux-Class Airlines comes in.  

Larger than a Gulf Stream or a Lear jet, but smaller than a "commercial jet" that can be tricked out to give the Lux-Class traveler his or her money's worth. 

Fun to think about.

Regards,

Slim.

Slimviews@gmail.com

Slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2017 Bob Asken
All rights reserved.

Monday, March 20, 2017

Oil: Speculation or Calculation?



It would seem that we undervalue the influence of speculation. 

Why increase production unless you have a reasonable expectation of a growth curve? 

You know that increasing supply with the expectation of oversupply and declining demand as a result of a slowing global economy will drive prices down. 

Expert analysts had to have known that Saudi Arabia would act to protect revenue. And that protection played out by Saudi Arabia pumping oil. 

In addition, in "Energy Independence" I pointed out that if we no longer buy Saudi Arabian oil, we will no longer be customers.  And by extension, we will no longer be friends.  At best, we will have an expedient relationship.  I also pointed out that Saudi Arabian officials will be talking to Chinese officials. They are.

The only reasonable interpretation goes to motive. 

The motive? 

Flood the market, drive down prices, and drive competitors out of business. Then buy up their assets at bargain prices.

Add to this the propensity to speculate on price fluctuations must in some manner add to the price fluctuations. 

Just saying. 

Regards, 

Slim. 

slimfairview@yahoo.com

rpa@Georgetown.edu

Copyright (c) 2017  Bob Asken
All rights reserved. 

Thursday, February 2, 2017

And the Winner is....


Apple.  Google.  Microsoft.  Facebook. 


Circa 2030


And the winner is....


I already wrote an article "Beware the Datum" about the manipulation of information, or data, or statistics.  
"Figures don't lie, but liars figure." Unknown.

I am not going to reinvent the wheel.

Slim Fairview's Four Rules of Communication:

Precision
Concision
Enumerate
Specify


The Concepts:


Apple:
Gadgets and gizmos.  Maybe content.  Talked about i-TV and home control systems. Rumors about an Apple Car.


Google:
The ultimate search engine.  So much a part of the fabric of online activity that Google has become a verb. Not unlike Xerox(R)  Also involved in devices, R&D and Social Eugenics.  Hope is a plan.  Came up with the idea of implementing an ill-considered name change to Alphabet.  Analogy: Did Apple change its name to fruit cocktail to reflect the many different activities the company is engaged in?


Microsoft:
You can talk for a thousand years. Microsoft is a high-tech, okay, a very high-tech stationery store.  A digital ream of paper. 25 (million) column accounting paper. Calendars and appointment books. A digital DayTimer®  And an "outsourced" office management system.

"There is no cloud. It's just someone else's computer." Unknown.

Each launch of a new system seemed to be a failed attempt to improve on Windows 98 2nd Edition.  More bells and whistles. More loud noises, bright colors, and shiny things. Nonetheless, A virtual Staples®

Facebook:
Metaphorically speaking, "literally a virtual world."  A global community.  Of the 7.3 Billion people on the Earth  1.8 billion people are on Facebook.  

"When we stop calling it social media and start calling it business media, we will better understand the medium" ~Slim Fairview.  

This is where life will happen. This is where life is happening:  Business, Entertainment, Communications, Content, Movies, Television, Telephone, Telegraph, Camera, Photo Album, Yellow Pages®, you name it, it's Facebook.



A Three Legged Table 

Just as a three-legged table can't wobble because all three legs sit in one plane, technology needs three legs.  Device, Content, Audience.


For the purpose of this discussion, 

Apple provides the ultimate receptor:  the i-Pad.

Facebook provides the ultimate audience in addition to a vital element.  The ability to analyze market segmentation.  Vast, diverse, interested, global.

Content:

Here, the keyword is flexibility.

Case in point: One reason it is so difficult to succeed in the restaurant business is that the population has increased 3-fold, but real-estate has not.  Land demand drive up the rent.

The second reason is that the market has changed.  What is that change?  The change is that the market changes. Quickly.  Fads come and go and at an accelerated and accelerating rate.


  • You don't know what the next fad is until it's upon you.
  • You don't know how long the new fad will last.
  • You don't know when the current fad will end.
  • You don't know what the next fad will be.

  • And investors have money to invest.


Just as many people (Slim included) believe that MTV shortened the attention span with music videos that offered 2-second pic-bites, "Social Media" has created a society of cocoons.  And remember:

"A caterpillar becomes a butterfly in a cocoon. Not under a microscope."
~Slim Fairview.

In a rapidly changing world, filled with uncertainty, there is a primal need safety and that safety comes in the form of control. Even if only over one's own life. Therefore, people are building firewalls.


The Experts

People never see change coming.

For those who are too young to remember, and those who are too old to remember, the reality is this simple:


Despite the fact that research has shown that people don't want more choices, people want closure, the store will stock sweaters in 14 colors not 4.  And this does not touch on market segmentation.

When I grew up, television had channels: 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13.

Today? 150 Channels? 500 Channels?

You can see how dividing the market will cut ratings, cut ad revenues, cut profits, put some out of business, cause others to merge and/or acquire, and create a desperate quest for ad revenues. Ad revenues mean the company stays in business.  No money, no TV.

Today, when content exceeds the demand, a company like Facebook, with a bit of data, and only a nodding glance at analysis, can tell the advertisers who are watching what, where they live, what their interests are, what they buy, how much they spend, and who should buy ad time.  Also, how to capture the attention of the audience.

I already wrote about the Observer Effect and Observer Bias.

It is short, metaphorical, E-Z 2 understand.



Experts:

Talkies
"Folks don't want to listen to all that chatter. They want to see real acting.

Television
"Folks don't want to squint at that tiny screen. Folks want to see the Big Screen.

The Motor Car:
"Noisy, smelly, toy for the rich.  It'll never replace the horse."

The Airplane:
If God wanted me to fly, there'd be an airport in every city in the country. Do you see any airports?

Vinyl to 8-track. 8-track to cassette. Cassette to CD.  CD to Napster, to i-Tunes, to streaming music.

VHS v. Beta.  VHS to DVD. DVD to Video on Demand.  Video on Demand to Streaming.

All the people who head up what's hot in technology have these in common:

The refusal to see what's coming.
The refusal to accept what's coming.
The denial of what's coming.
Justifying the status quo.


This brings us to our original question.

Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook.  Circa 2030.

And the winner is......


Which company will lead the pack?  Which company will be the also-ran?

The keywords are adaptation, co-operation, flexibility.  
Moonshots and marketing won't pay the bills for long.


The Definitions of Slim Fairview:

Advertising: convince the consumer to buy what you want to sell. 
E.g. Every day low pricing.

Marketing: Sell what the consumer wants to buy. (Find a need and fill it.) 
E.g. Discounts and coupons.



11 February 2013 I posted the article


Word on the street. Folks inside Apple floated the idea of buying TWX.


The Receptor
The Audience
The Content


The mechanism of Facebook allows people--globally--to make their demands known. And the information provided by consumers will allow the content providers to give the customers what they want and give the advertisers the information they need to give the consumers the information they need to make informed decisions when purchasing
goods and services.


This is called "on the pulse of the market".

It changes faster than Mr. Blandings can keep up with even after he finishes building his dream house.


Sincerest regards,

Slim Fairview



Copyright (c) 2017 Bob Asken
All rights reserved.