Draghi, "The law does not allow..."
Here is the analogy.
You cut yourself. You go to your dentist. You say, "Doctor, I cut myself. Can you stitch me up?"
Your dentist says, "Open your mouth and let's see what we have."
You say, "I didn't cut my gum, I cut my arm."
Your dentist says, "The law does not allow me to stitch up your arm. I can give you a band-aid, but I can't apply it. I will leave it on the counter, you can put it on yourself."
Fine. However, you still need stitches. You go to the dentist next door. She tells you the same thing. You go to the dentist across the street. He tells you the same thing.
The band-aids save you from bleeding all over the place. Still, you need stitches. Eventually, you pass out. You are taken to the hospital. There, a doctor stitches your arm.
You're dentist can't solve the EuroCrisis either.
Warmest regards,
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Monday, December 5, 2011
Merkel's Last Stand
Slim Fairview's Predictions for the Upcoming Conclave of the EuroCrats.
The EuroCrats are fed up. The European people are fed up.
Every Solution concocted at every meeting is revealed to be temporary.
Every attempt to resolve the cause of the problems--causes that are systemic--are impeded by Chancellor Merkel.
Chancellor Merkel's strict demands for Austerity as a one pronged approached has turned the one pronged approach into a weapon.
Chancellor Merkel said, "Why should German taxpayers contribute to a fund to bail out a French bank that will compete with a German bank?"
The argument could be made that it is the Chancellor's job to act first in the interest of Germany. However, as the crisis deepens, Germany will end up as nothing more than last in the line of dominoes to fall.
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/10/oops-euroglitch.html
If anyone has doubts, witness the most recent German bond sale.
Austerity without Economic Development is no solution. Under the management of Chancellor Merkel, The EuroZone has kept Greece and Italy shackled to poverty by keeping Greece and Italy shackled to poverty programmes. Their continued support for Chancellor Merkel is supplication for continued bailout money.
Tim Geithner went to Europe to declaim, "Austerity."
Tim Geithner went on CNN news to declaim, "No country ever cut its way to prosperity."
This is reminiscent of the declamation, "No country ever taxed its way to prosperity," in the first two years of Bill Clinton's first term. There are still those who claim Bill Clinton balanced the budget. In the first two years? http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/11/political-math.html
You cannot cut pay, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution. This is evidenced by the continued problems in Greece.
Recently, Papademos said that he would propose legislation that will include austerity and growth. He proposed austerity and cutting taxes. The Press still has not reported on the growth programmes proposed--if any.
Merkel's most recent proposals were:
For investors to contribute to the bailout fund.
For investors to take a 50% loss. Would you invest in anything if the broker guaranteed you a 50% loss?
The next idea floated was for "coupons" to limit investor losses to 20% - 30%. Investors invest to make a profit, not to mitigate losses.
The next idea floated was to go to China for money, to Brazil for money, to the PetroStates for money. This is not a solution. This is a Ponzi Scheme.
Merkel's parsimoniously doling out Pfennige in exchange for an obeisance in exchange for bailouts that continuously do not solve the problem.
Only recently have I heard from Europe what I've been saying.
There is talk about Merkel not being electable with the current numbers.
Privatisation.
A larger bailout fund. (Though I did not put it that way.) This is not the answer, this is the question: http://sidestreetjournal.blogspot.com/2011/12/lender-of-first-resort.html
The path to the solution is simple:
What have you done?
Did things get better? No.
Did things get worse? Yes.
Don't do that!
Read Lender of First Resort. If you can have a lender of last resort, you can have a lender of first resort.
With the Crisis arriving at German shores, the panic will cause Merkel to shift strategy. The Chancellor will promise to consider alternatives. Translation: The Chancellor will sit quietly while others talk about alternatives. The Chancellor will concede they should be looked into. The Chancellor will succeed in delaying any serious change by sending any ideas, viable or not, to a committee.
If anyone believes a committee is a good way to solve problems, I shall refute you with one word--Congress!
Slim Fairview's Predictions--Probable and Possible.
Probable:
The EuroCrats will meet to discuss the EuroCrisis.
Discussions may include a larger bailout fund--this will be challenged.
The discussion will move to Economic Development and Growth. Conditions will be imposed:
Treaty modifications will be discussed. These modifications, understandably, will be intended to insulate Germany from what Chancellor Merkel believes to be the impending collapse of the EuroZone Economy. They will also be intended to allow the micro-management of indebted nations.
Possible:
There will be a call for Chancellor Merkel to step down--from other Nations' Parliaments, but preferably from the German Parliament.
A Lender of First Resort agency will be established. This Agency will buy bonds at a favourable and affordable rate to, say, Greece and Italy, and recoup their investment by selling bonds at a favourable rate to investors. While the difference may cost the Agency, it will be more cost effective than continuing the failed bailout solution.
China will pledge to buy €300 Billion worth of the Agency bonds.
Turkey will pledge to buy the bonds.
Brazil will pledge to buy the bonds.
Russia will pledge to buy the bonds.
Greece and Italy will agree to a privatisation plan that allows Greek & Italian government workers to buy stock in many of the entities they work for. The stock purchases will exceed 50% of the issue allowing Greek and Italian workers to retain a majority share.
Foreign Investors will buy stock.
The Greek and Italian Governments will generate revenue from the sale of the stocks, from the "Corporate" tax rate, from the capital gains tax, from income taxes.
The workers have a choice: A government paycheck that may be smaller or, in the event of being fired, non-existent or receiving a paycheck and a profit from the ownership of the privatised company they work for. Benefits will include pensions and health care.
In any event, many of the ideas included in the monographs I've been posting over the last several months, heretofore not discussed, will finally be discussed. The only question is, will they be discussed seriously, or will they merely be discussed to give the appearance of attempting to solve the problems?
Bon chance.
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
All rights reserved.
The EuroCrats are fed up. The European people are fed up.
Every Solution concocted at every meeting is revealed to be temporary.
Every attempt to resolve the cause of the problems--causes that are systemic--are impeded by Chancellor Merkel.
Chancellor Merkel's strict demands for Austerity as a one pronged approached has turned the one pronged approach into a weapon.
Chancellor Merkel said, "Why should German taxpayers contribute to a fund to bail out a French bank that will compete with a German bank?"
The argument could be made that it is the Chancellor's job to act first in the interest of Germany. However, as the crisis deepens, Germany will end up as nothing more than last in the line of dominoes to fall.
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/10/oops-euroglitch.html
If anyone has doubts, witness the most recent German bond sale.
Austerity without Economic Development is no solution. Under the management of Chancellor Merkel, The EuroZone has kept Greece and Italy shackled to poverty by keeping Greece and Italy shackled to poverty programmes. Their continued support for Chancellor Merkel is supplication for continued bailout money.
Tim Geithner went to Europe to declaim, "Austerity."
Tim Geithner went on CNN news to declaim, "No country ever cut its way to prosperity."
This is reminiscent of the declamation, "No country ever taxed its way to prosperity," in the first two years of Bill Clinton's first term. There are still those who claim Bill Clinton balanced the budget. In the first two years? http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/11/political-math.html
You cannot cut pay, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution. This is evidenced by the continued problems in Greece.
Recently, Papademos said that he would propose legislation that will include austerity and growth. He proposed austerity and cutting taxes. The Press still has not reported on the growth programmes proposed--if any.
Merkel's most recent proposals were:
For investors to contribute to the bailout fund.
For investors to take a 50% loss. Would you invest in anything if the broker guaranteed you a 50% loss?
The next idea floated was for "coupons" to limit investor losses to 20% - 30%. Investors invest to make a profit, not to mitigate losses.
The next idea floated was to go to China for money, to Brazil for money, to the PetroStates for money. This is not a solution. This is a Ponzi Scheme.
Merkel's parsimoniously doling out Pfennige in exchange for an obeisance in exchange for bailouts that continuously do not solve the problem.
Only recently have I heard from Europe what I've been saying.
There is talk about Merkel not being electable with the current numbers.
Privatisation.
A larger bailout fund. (Though I did not put it that way.) This is not the answer, this is the question: http://sidestreetjournal.blogspot.com/2011/12/lender-of-first-resort.html
The path to the solution is simple:
What have you done?
Did things get better? No.
Did things get worse? Yes.
Don't do that!
Read Lender of First Resort. If you can have a lender of last resort, you can have a lender of first resort.
With the Crisis arriving at German shores, the panic will cause Merkel to shift strategy. The Chancellor will promise to consider alternatives. Translation: The Chancellor will sit quietly while others talk about alternatives. The Chancellor will concede they should be looked into. The Chancellor will succeed in delaying any serious change by sending any ideas, viable or not, to a committee.
If anyone believes a committee is a good way to solve problems, I shall refute you with one word--Congress!
Slim Fairview's Predictions--Probable and Possible.
Probable:
The EuroCrats will meet to discuss the EuroCrisis.
Discussions may include a larger bailout fund--this will be challenged.
The discussion will move to Economic Development and Growth. Conditions will be imposed:
- A strict oversight of indebted nations
- Austerity before any capital investment in economic development and growth
- An effort to keep the IMF at a distance to prevent Madame Lagarde from participation.
Treaty modifications will be discussed. These modifications, understandably, will be intended to insulate Germany from what Chancellor Merkel believes to be the impending collapse of the EuroZone Economy. They will also be intended to allow the micro-management of indebted nations.
Possible:
There will be a call for Chancellor Merkel to step down--from other Nations' Parliaments, but preferably from the German Parliament.
A Lender of First Resort agency will be established. This Agency will buy bonds at a favourable and affordable rate to, say, Greece and Italy, and recoup their investment by selling bonds at a favourable rate to investors. While the difference may cost the Agency, it will be more cost effective than continuing the failed bailout solution.
China will pledge to buy €300 Billion worth of the Agency bonds.
Turkey will pledge to buy the bonds.
Brazil will pledge to buy the bonds.
Russia will pledge to buy the bonds.
Greece and Italy will agree to a privatisation plan that allows Greek & Italian government workers to buy stock in many of the entities they work for. The stock purchases will exceed 50% of the issue allowing Greek and Italian workers to retain a majority share.
Foreign Investors will buy stock.
The Greek and Italian Governments will generate revenue from the sale of the stocks, from the "Corporate" tax rate, from the capital gains tax, from income taxes.
The workers have a choice: A government paycheck that may be smaller or, in the event of being fired, non-existent or receiving a paycheck and a profit from the ownership of the privatised company they work for. Benefits will include pensions and health care.
In any event, many of the ideas included in the monographs I've been posting over the last several months, heretofore not discussed, will finally be discussed. The only question is, will they be discussed seriously, or will they merely be discussed to give the appearance of attempting to solve the problems?
Bon chance.
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
All rights reserved.
Friday, December 2, 2011
You Can't Fool the Lion
You Can't Fool the Lion
Let's say you tell everyone you are a lion tamer.
People believe you. They have no reason to doubt you.
Everyone is convinced you are a lion tamer.
Anyone with a question about lion taming can go to you with his or her question.
You answer all questions with knowledge and authority.
Then, a lion walks into the room.
Everyone panics.
Everyone looks to you to save them.
You panic.
Why?
You Cannot Fool the Lion!
Bon chance.
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Lender of First Resort?
How long have the EuroCrats been trying to solve the EuroCrisis?
Too long.
Has the situation become more high, good, better?
No.
Has the situation become more low, bad, worse?
Yes.
DON'T DO THAT!
My constant complaint with everything that has been said or written about the crisis is that it is descriptive not prescriptive. The EuroCrats keep toiling away, clutching retentively to the process of applying Band-Aid after Band-Aid to the situation with no resolution.
Now it is time to rethink the way you rethink the problem and the solution.
The phrase that suddenly jumped out at me is "Lender of last resort." Why?
Let's try to rethink a possible solution. This is not an answer. This is a question. The question is very simple.
Will this work?
Forgetting the institutions we have for just a moment, The IMF, The ECB, The EFSF and look for a metaphorical, UEB. The Unified European Bank. And put aside, for a moment the declamation, "We can't do that because....."
Will this work?
Make the UEB the European Lender of First Resort.
The UEB is the first purchaser of Greek Bonds, Portugal Bonds, French Bonds, German Bonds, &c. The UEB ignores bond ratings. They become irrelevant.
They buy the bonds (for the purposes of discussion only) at 5%.
The UEB then becomes a reseller, reselling the bonds at, say 6%. Yes, I know this is less than they are paying out. This is the subsidy in lieu of the bottomless pit of the bailout solution.
The bonds, offered by the UEB and backed by the EuroNations are more attractive than say Greek Bonds or Italian Bonds, or now even German Bonds. (Remember the German Bond Sale Gone Bad?)
However, "Austerity without Growth is not a solution." Slim Fairview. From The Quotations of Slim Fairview.
Now you have Step Two.
You can choose:
Plan A: Growth and Economic Development.
Plan B: Economic Development and Growth.
That, of course, is a trick question. You cannot have growth without economic development.
Privatisation is not a dirty when when, for example, the Greek Bus Driver stops driving for the metaphorical Athens Metropolitan Transit Authority and begins driving for the Athens Bus Company--and the Greek Bus Driver now owns stock in the Athens Bus Company.
The Greek Bus Drivers goes from a paycheck (tenuous, not guaranteed, smaller than it was due to austerity measures, and non-existent if he gets fired) to earning a Paycheck and a Profit.
He not only receives a piece of the pie, he receives a piece of the profits from the bakery because he owns a piece of the bakery.
This may be a radical departure. However, if the EuroCrats continue to discuss measures that have been implemented repeatedly and have repeatedly failed and failed miserably to resolve the crisis, it may be time for them to rethink the way they rethink the problem and start thinking about some new solutions. New ideas. New methods.
And please.....ask Angela Merkel to step down.
Bon chance.
Sincerest regards,
Slim
If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note. Slim.
Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072
Etats Unis
Slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Bob Asken
All Rights Reserved.
Too long.
Has the situation become more high, good, better?
No.
Has the situation become more low, bad, worse?
Yes.
DON'T DO THAT!
My constant complaint with everything that has been said or written about the crisis is that it is descriptive not prescriptive. The EuroCrats keep toiling away, clutching retentively to the process of applying Band-Aid after Band-Aid to the situation with no resolution.
Now it is time to rethink the way you rethink the problem and the solution.
The phrase that suddenly jumped out at me is "Lender of last resort." Why?
Let's try to rethink a possible solution. This is not an answer. This is a question. The question is very simple.
Will this work?
Forgetting the institutions we have for just a moment, The IMF, The ECB, The EFSF and look for a metaphorical, UEB. The Unified European Bank. And put aside, for a moment the declamation, "We can't do that because....."
Will this work?
Make the UEB the European Lender of First Resort.
The UEB is the first purchaser of Greek Bonds, Portugal Bonds, French Bonds, German Bonds, &c. The UEB ignores bond ratings. They become irrelevant.
They buy the bonds (for the purposes of discussion only) at 5%.
The UEB then becomes a reseller, reselling the bonds at, say 6%. Yes, I know this is less than they are paying out. This is the subsidy in lieu of the bottomless pit of the bailout solution.
The bonds, offered by the UEB and backed by the EuroNations are more attractive than say Greek Bonds or Italian Bonds, or now even German Bonds. (Remember the German Bond Sale Gone Bad?)
However, "Austerity without Growth is not a solution." Slim Fairview. From The Quotations of Slim Fairview.
Now you have Step Two.
You can choose:
Plan A: Growth and Economic Development.
Plan B: Economic Development and Growth.
That, of course, is a trick question. You cannot have growth without economic development.
Privatisation is not a dirty when when, for example, the Greek Bus Driver stops driving for the metaphorical Athens Metropolitan Transit Authority and begins driving for the Athens Bus Company--and the Greek Bus Driver now owns stock in the Athens Bus Company.
The Greek Bus Drivers goes from a paycheck (tenuous, not guaranteed, smaller than it was due to austerity measures, and non-existent if he gets fired) to earning a Paycheck and a Profit.
He not only receives a piece of the pie, he receives a piece of the profits from the bakery because he owns a piece of the bakery.
This may be a radical departure. However, if the EuroCrats continue to discuss measures that have been implemented repeatedly and have repeatedly failed and failed miserably to resolve the crisis, it may be time for them to rethink the way they rethink the problem and start thinking about some new solutions. New ideas. New methods.
And please.....ask Angela Merkel to step down.
Bon chance.
Sincerest regards,
Slim
If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note. Slim.
Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072
Etats Unis
Slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Bob Asken
All Rights Reserved.
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