Shark Food

Shark Food

In a recently published article, I wrote, beware the datum.  I gave an example of how data is used to manipulate conclusions.


Here is an excerpt.

When I was young, the population was 100,000,000 people.  The population increased by 10,000,000 or 10%. 

Recently, with a population of 300,000,000, the population increased by 15,000,000 people or 5%. 

One report reads, the growth trend in population has increased by 50%.
The population increase went from an increase of 10 million people to 15 million people.

The other report reads that the growth trend in population has decreased by 50%. The population growth rate moved from 10% growth to 5% growth.


I am reminded of this each and every time I hear someone report a number.

Beware the Datum.


Now:

You and 11 friends are at the beach.  One friend says, "let's go swimming."

You don't want to.  You are worried about sharks.

Your friend runs down a list of facts about sharks and shark attacks.

Your chances of being attacked by shark.
Where you are most likely to be attacked by a shark.
The time of year you are most likely to be attacked by a shark.

Your friend convinces everyone it's safe to go into the water.

You are not convinced because you saw a dorsal fin cutting through the water.

Some are concerned.  But your friend goes down the list of facts again and convinces everyone that it is safe to go swimming.

Everyone goes in.  Except for you.

Then, a shark eats one of your friends.  And everyone scrambles to get out of the water.

You say to everyone, "See?  I told you it wasn't safe."

You're friend says,  "I didn't say no one would be eaten.  And besides, the shark only ate one person.  Ten of us got out safely."

"Yes," you reply, "but first everyone had to scramble to get out of the water.  And now everyone has to scramble for a good spot on the beach.  I got my spot while you were all in the water.  And besides, while it's true that the shark only ate one person, the other ten had to scramble to get out of the water.  So they're not swimming either."

You can look at all the statistics you want.  If you see the dorsal fin, you are not going  to go into the water.


Sincerest regards,

Slim.

Copyright (c) 2017  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.