I am reminded of Monty Hall & the convertible & goats issue in the Marilyn vos Savant column.
Monty Hall shows 3 doors.
One has a convertible. The other 2: goats.
You choose number 1.
Before Mr. Hall shows you door number 1, he reveals what's behind door number 3: a goat.
Now, Mr. Hall says, "Do you want to stay with door 1 or switch to door 2?
The answer was, he should switch to number 2 because door number 1 had a 1 in 3 chances of winning & door number 2 has a 1 in 2 chance of winning.
Try:
The same premise but You pick door number 2.
Should you switch to door 1 because now door 1 has a 1 in 2 chances of winning?
In the 1st question, if door 2 has a 50: 50 chance of winning,
then door 2 has a 50: 50 chance of losing.
& if door 2 loses, door 1 wins
But that is not the linguistic legerdemain.
It's when Monty Hall says, "Do you want to stay with door 1 or switch to door 2?
The real issue: the game.
Game one: You chose door 1. Mr. Hall shows you a goat behind door 3. Game 1 is over.
New game.
You have 2 doors.
Behind one: a convertible.
Behind the other: a goat.
Do you want door 1 or door 2.
Each door has a 50: 50 chance of winning
It's all a matter of the linguistic legerdemain. that guides you to believing you are still calculating odds on game 1.
If door 1 had a 1 in 3 chance of winning in game 1 then door 2 had a 1 in 3 chance of winning in game 1.
If the odds on door 2 change in game 2
then the odds on door 1 change in game 2
This is not a question of mathematics but of gambling & sales.
Sincerest regards,
Slim.
From
The Quotations of Slim Fairview
© 2021 Robert Asken
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Robert Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072
