Monty Hall and the Convertible

 I am reminded of Monty Hall & the convertible & goats issue in the Marilyn vos Savant column.

Monty Hall shows 3 doors.

One has a convertible. The other 2: goats.

You choose number 1.

Before Mr. Hall shows you door number 1, he reveals what's behind door number 3: a goat.

Now, Mr. Hall says, "Do you want to stay with door 1 or switch to door 2?

The answer was, he should switch to number 2 because door number 1 had a 1 in 3 chances of winning & door number 2 has a 1 in 2 chance of winning.

Try:

The same premise but You pick door number 2.

Should you switch to door 1 because now door 1 has a 1 in 2 chances of winning?

In the 1st question, if door 2 has a 50: 50 chance of winning,

then door 2 has a 50: 50 chance of losing.

& if door 2 loses, door 1 wins

But that is not the linguistic legerdemain.

It's when Monty Hall says, "Do you want to stay with door 1 or switch to door 2?

The real issue: the game.

Game one: You chose door 1. Mr. Hall shows you a goat behind door 3. Game 1 is over.

New game.

You have 2 doors.

Behind one: a convertible.

Behind the other: a goat.

Do you want door 1 or door 2.

Each door has a 50: 50 chance of winning

It's all a matter of the linguistic legerdemain. that guides you to believing you are still calculating odds on game 1.

If door 1 had a 1 in 3 chance of winning in game 1 then door 2 had a 1 in 3 chance of winning in game 1.

If the odds on door 2 change in game 2

then the odds on door 1 change in game 2

This is not a question of mathematics but of gambling & sales.

Sincerest regards,

Slim.

From

The Quotations of Slim Fairview

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Robert Asken

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