Zen Paradox: Solving the US Fiscal Crisis

The Zen Paradox. 

For example, a box for pieces of string too short to save.  

Another: In the village of whiskers, the barber shaves every man who does not shave himself. Does the barber shave himself?

Why neither The House nor The Senate nor The Democrats nor The Republicans can solve the economic crisis.

First:  Let’s address the Republican complaint of 6 Trillion dollars added to the deficit in 4 years.

$6,000,000,000,000

Second:  We have two solutions.

• Raise taxes (on the top 2% so the wealthy pay a little bit more).
• Cut Spending.

If we try to deal with this over 60 years this is what we get.

$100,000,000,000 per year for 60 years.

We have three options.

• The Republican
• The Democrat
• The Compromise

The Democrats want to raise taxes.

The Republicans want to cut spending

The Compromise is a little of each

From the US Census Web site.

Households: 114,761,359

Population: 313,914,040

If we round of for the purposes of comparison and discussion only

We have 300,000,000 People.  (Three Hundred Million People)

We have 100,000,000 Households.  (One Hundred Million Households)

2% of our population is 6 million people.

2% of our households are 2 million households.

Now let's do some simple arithmetic.

First:  Raise the money through raising taxes.

$100,000,000,000  ÷ 2,000,000 (households) = $50,000 per year per household for 60 years.

If we calculate by people 

$100,000,000,000 ÷  3,000,000 (people) = approximately $30,000 per year per person for 60 years.

Second: Raise the money through budget cuts.

We must cut $100,000,000,000 from the budget per year for 60 years.

Third: The Compromise

Divide the burden in half (for the purposes of comparison and discussion only).

We reduce the budget $50,000,000,000 per year for 60 years.

We raise the taxes on the top 2% an average of $40,000 per year for 60 years.

The Conundrum

In cutting the budget, we must remember that 60 years from now the price of a loaf of bread may double twice.  That should be a big enough hint to those who may have forgotten that we are not allowed to raise Government Spending for 60 years.

The Paradox:

If we cut government spending by that much, our economy will decline.

If we raise taxes by that much, our economy will decline.

If we compromise by that much, our economy will decline.

There is an alternative.

We can grow our way out of the problem.

CI + ED = G

Capital Investment + Economic Development = Growth.

Caveat

Please double check my arithmetic.

Warmest regards,

Slim

Fiscal Crisis Solution Worksheet 

Negotiating the Cliff

slimfairview@yahoo.com

slimviews and thesidestreetjournal are unfunded, unsupported, sometimes unsupportable, non-profit, and--alas--unprofitable web logs by Slim Fairview.

Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a month or two.  Sincerely, Slim

Copyright  © 2013 Slim Fairview.  All rights reserved.

All Jobs Are Local

In another article, I pointed out that $800 Billion dollars could be used to create 4 Million jobs at $40,000 per year for 5 years.  That was to point out the magnitude of the effort.  

However, the money went to projects that, as President Obama pointed out, were not as shovel ready as we thought.  In other words, the regulations that Congress puts into effect to diminish the ability of private enterprise to create jobs, are the same regulations that impeded the President's efforts to create jobs.  

"Oh, what a tangled web we weave when we ask Congress, will you lead?"

In other words; hoisted upon our own petard.

However: 

All Jobs Are Local

Let's forget "Projects" for a moment and concentrate on jobs. Real jobs. Capital investment, economic development, and growth. This for many.

First let's consider the fact that the unemployment rate among African Americans is about twice what it is for White people. Far too many are living in economically depressed areas. Far too many have no options.

Here we go.

Take $50 Billion Dollars.  

Congress wastes a lot of money. It won't hurt them to spend some on something that will work.

Take several cities and areas.

• Newark and the East Orange area

• New York City, particularly Harlem and The Bronx

• East Saint Louis

Take 1000 houses.  Those not unlike the houses sold in Newark for $1. to those who wanted to restore them and live in them for at least 5 years.

Here is a job:  $40,000. a year.  

These are the qualifications and obligations.

Young couple with children.

Take parenting Classes

Achieve G.E.D.

Be willing (one or both) to go on for additional education and or training.

Example:  Technical School to become an airplane mechanic

                  Community College for Associates Degree in Accounting

Be willing to work on the restoration of the  house.

When rich people buy and restore houses, it is called gentrification and forces low income people out of the area.  Why not have low income people in the area benefit from the home restorations.

Jobs created in the  process:

• Plumber

• Electrician

• Carpenter

• Painter

• Mason

• Roofer

• Glazier

The above crafts are areas where people with the  skills and who are not employed can participate in and benefit from the programme. 

Case in point.

Air travel will double in the next 20 years.  While some are debating whether this means twice as many airports or that the airports we have will be twice as big, to me it means more airline mechanics will be needed.  

With Health Care becoming a booming industry, accountants will be needed.  Real education and real training in fields where these skills are needed.

Then, too, there is the multiplier effect.

Here is a project that can work.  It can be set up as a template in a few weeks with minimal overhead costs for office space, used office furniture from government warehouses, and staff.

Once this template is established, the programme can be expanded to Chicago, Dallas, Compton, LA, Atlanta, Detroit, and so on.

Still, don't expect Congress to do anything.  If they do, they can be relied upon to design the project so it is guaranteed to fail. (Remember the Super-Committee?) 

Regards, 

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2013 Slim Fairview

All rights reserved.

Idea! AAPL + FB Buys AOL Time Warner CNN

I have an idea.  I suggest that Apple team up with Facebook to buy AOL Time Warner CNN?

[Editor's Note:  It was rumored that Apple had discussions about a Time Warner Purchase in 2015.  It never materialized.  Now, news reports suggest that Apple is looking into original content.  Then, too, so is everyone else. 13 July 2017.]

I was forced to revise this article.  The revision lies herein.

********************

I realised that the problems of AAPL are not a tech-school problem, but a b-school problem.  There is a problem with market share, innovation, market penetration, revenue enhancement, diversification of the portfolio and so on.

There appears to be a scorched earth policy.  The i-Pad has competitors eroding market share.  (if then: go to) AAPL goes to and innovates the i-Phone.  The Blackberry is moving into Apple's market share: Apple goes to the i-TV.

This is fine if we have an endless stream of new products and can afford to abandon market share to competitors.  That has worked up to now.  Follow the path of the trajectory.

If you don't want to hear it from me, I have a Linkedin Colleague (with a PhD. who can explain it.  The catch: you must go to Linkedin where I posted the link to this article.  Or to Twitter.  Or to Facebook.)

**************************

APPLE has the cash on hand that seems to bother people.  Also, there has been discussion about growth.  (There needs to be some diversification and revenue enhancement.)

FACEBOOK has 1 Billion users globally.

With the purchases, AAPL + FB will gain

• Email (Lose the cartoons)
• Publishing
• Cable TV (Apple TV?)
• Movies (Streaming video for i-Pads)
• CNN  (A global news network which is ideally suited for the i Pads.)

But wait! There's More!

• There are far more pluses.  You diversify your investment portfolio.  
• You enhance the value of the i-Pad as a direct source for movies, news, Cable TV.
• You Monetise Facebook
• You invest overseas cash
• You get shareholders off your backs.

In addition, the i-Reporter system of viewers from around the nation and around the world provides on the spot videos of news and other matters of interest.

This ties in directly to Facebook's One Billion Users and all the services FB can provide.


AAPL MEETS HOLLYWOOD
 

But, don't bother listening to me. Everyone always doesn't listen to me.

Sincerely,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

PS.   If you find anything I've said to be helpful, please do not hesitate to send me a really tricked-out Mac Book and to put a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank-you note. Slim


Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072

LinkedIn Profile:

www.linkedin.com/in/slimfairview/

Copyright  ©  2013 Bob Asken

All Rights Reserved

  

The Real Questions for Chuck Hegel

Secretary of Defense Qualification Exam

Read the statements. Answer the Questions.

In your answers, adhere to the admonition: Slim Fairview's Four Rules of Communication: Precision, Concision, Enumerate, Specify.

1.  There is an Old Arab saying, "Me and my cousin against my neighbor, but me and my brother against my cousin."

     A.  List the top five (5) nations outside Europe, but including Russia and Turkey, that you consider our cousins in the context of the above saying.  

Explain your reasons for each of the five.

     B.  List the top five (5) nations outside Europe, but including Russia and Turkey that you consider to be our brothers in the context of the above saying.

Explain your reasons for each of the five.

2.  There is an old Arab saying, "The friend of my enemy is my enemy. The enemy of my enemy is my friend."

     A.  List the top five (5) nations outside Europe, but including Russia and Turkey, that you consider to be enemies of our enemies..

     B.  List the top five (5) nations outside Europe, but including Russia and Turkey, that you consider to be friends of our enemies.

Read the following statement. Answer the question.

3.  We frequently hear how the killing of Al Qaeda leaders has reduced the threat of Al Qaeda.  However.  though nature abhors a vacuum, there seems to be no evidence that others have filled these positions.  Rather, it appears that Al Qaeda has broken off into splinter groups.  Is Al Qaeda being used as a generic term for terrorist groups to:

     A. reduce the fear of the existence of emerging groups?

     B. distract from the existence of emerging groups.

You must state whether you agree or disagree with the above statements or your answer will not be included in your grade.

Read the following statement. Answer the question.

4.   In combating terrorism, we are not fighting an army of 1 million soldiers. We are fighting a million armies of 1 soldier each.

Do you agree or disagree? Defend your position.  Adhere to Slim Fairview's Four Rules of Communication listed at the beginning of this exam.

5.  Read the following article:  

Our Middle East Muddling.

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2012/03/our-middle-east-muddling.html 

State whether you agree or disagree.  Defend your position.  Adhere to Slim Fairview's Four Rules of Communication listed at the beginning of this exam.

Explain how you are able to aid our Middle East Allies based on whatever knowledge you have of Middle East Culture.

 NB:  Read: Beware! The Chancellor is Consolidating Power.

  

 http://sidestreetjournal.blogspot.com/2013/02/beware-chancellor-is-consolidating-power.html

State whether you agree or disagree.  Support your position using Slim Fairview's Four Rules of Communication: Precision, Concision, Enumerate, Specify. You must state whether you agree or disagree. Failure to do so may exclude you from consideration for the position

Tell how you will defend and protect the United States and our Allies from the impending problems arising from the position stated in the Article. Support your position using Slim Fairview's Four Rules of Communication: Precision, Concision, Enumerate, Specify

You have 90 Minutes to complete this exam.

Good Luck.

Warmest regards, 

Professor Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright  © 2013 Slim Fairview

All rights reserved

Beware! The Chancellor is Consolidating Power

For two years, I've been writing articles about the impending failure of Chancellor Merkel's one-pronged approach to solving the EuroCrisis.  However, as Goldfinger said to James Bond, "Who said I'm going to steal the gold, Mr. Bond?"  Some actions have an apparent purpose. Others do not.

The Recent meetings between Biden and Merkel now offer a very revealing look at the path of the trajectory. The Chancellor is not planning to "steal the gold".  The strategy is even more brilliant. [Not an allusion to the return of German gold from the US Vaults.]

The path of austerity was not a path to failure.  It was only a path to failing to resolve the European Economic Crisis--not the greater goal.

To see this, one must ask, "Why would President Obama support Chancellor Merkel?  The Chancellor's strategy of austerity and cutting spending is exactly the opposite of President Obama's successful strategy of capital investment, economic development, and growth.  Three items on my list of actions; actions I've been writing articles about for two years now.

The apparent?  The US supports Merkel because Merkel is our friend.  The reality?  Merkel is our friend because the US supports Merkel.  It is that simple.  However, there is more to the Chancellor's story.

The latest talks are ostensibly about security.  That is what we are told. That is what we believe. We have no reason to doubt that. Do we?

Let us ask ourselves, why, then, didn't The President send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Berlin?  Why then doesn't The President send Secretary of State John Kerry to Berlin?

Why did The President send Prime Minister Biden to Berlin to meet with the Chancellor?

Look at recent current events?

• Rioting in Greece

• Rioting in Spain

• Rioting in Italy

• Rioting in France

• Rioting in England

Conditions are becoming unstable in Italy.  Unemployment in Spain is unspeakable and youth unemployment is worse.

What are the results?  Not the apparent results.  The real results.

Unspeakable unemployment and crushing economic decline has fomented civil unrest among the citizens.  Civil unrest has spread to immigrant communities: immigrants from the Middle East and From North Africa.  In addition, there is a rising, and increasingly violent, right-wing--xenophobic movement.  This, of course, is intended to demonise and stigmatise that segment of the population.  Security concerns are certain to be expressed.  If you think this type of propaganda hasn't happened; can't happen; or can't happen here, think again.

• Germany in the thirties.
• England demonising Germans during World War I
• America demonising the Japanese during World War II

Under the guise of having come to a security agreement, Prime Minister Biden returns from Berlin to assure everyone that the Chancellor is our friend and openly willing to assist us with security issues in Europe and, by extension, in the United States.

Now, comes the consolidation of power:

The sudden "scandal" surrounding Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy.  According to the news in America, Mariano Rajoy is under a cloud of suspicion created by allegations that he did something that was absolutely legal.

Then there is the "scandal" surrounding Mario Draghi.  According to the news in America, Mario Draghi is under a cloud of suspicion created by allegations that some else did something that was illegal.

I don't know what prompted the invective against Mariano Rajoy, however, the cloud of suspicion around Mario Draghi arose after he openly embraced "Growth".  This is defiance and a direct challenge to The Chancellor.

After Mario Draghi announced the need for growth, I declared victory in a tweet.

"Draghi: Growth.  Slim Fairview defeats Chancellor Merkel."

Soon after, the news tape along the bottom of the TV screen declaimed, "Europe will not abandon growth."  Perhaps not a response to my tweet, but rather that I reached the hearts of the European people and that The Chancellor would have none of that.

The same thing happened last year when I posted that Angela Merkel was the problem.  Then President Sarkozy tweeted, "Merkel is not the problem."  Coincidence.  More likely that I expressed the feelings of the European people.

Now?  Now, Prime Minister Biden is returning from Berlin with a security agreement with the Chancellor.

• "Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it." Santayana.

• "Those who never learned history are doomed--period."  Slim Fairiew

We know where we were.  We know where we are, we should be able to figure out where we are going.  However, that is not the case.

Half the Europeans appear to have forgotten history.  Half the Europeans appear never to have learned history.  All of the Europeans appear not so see the present. Hence: they cannot see the future coming.

•  The economy will continue to decline.

• The people will grow more openly hostile if not violent.

• Immigrants will grow more hostile

• The extreme right will grow more xenophobic feeding on the fears of immigrants.

• Security will be threatened

• Besmirched leaders who defy The Chancellor will be discredited and leave office.

Does anyone remember when The Chancellor moved to consolidate banking under German Authority, or did I misread the intent of the unification of the European Banking Industry?

Beware. The Chancellor is Consolidating her Power.

"That you cannot predict the future is not a proper rebuff to the person who tells you to get off the tracks, a train is coming."  ~ Slim Fairview

"Get off the tracks. The train is coming."  ~ Slim Fairview

Regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Slimviews and The Side Street Journal ["Commentary on Global Political and Economic Events by Slim Fairview.  Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a month or two."  ~ Slim Fairview] are unfunded, unsupported, non-profit web logs written by Slim Fairview. 

Copyright  © 2012 Slim Fairview. All Rights Reserved.

The all time most read article on my blog.  

Merkel's Last Stand 

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/12/merkels-last-stand.html

If you find anything I've written to be helpful, please do not hesitate to send me a really tricked out laptop and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.  Slim

Negotiating the Cliff

The Fiscal Cliff Crisis is a Process Management Problem

 

"The fiscal crisis is not an economics problem. It is not a political problem. It is not, as one pundit put it, a math problem.  The Fiscal Cliff is a process management problem."  Slim Fairview.

The Negotiation Procedure

The standard procedure for negotiations:

You express you opinion.

I express my opinion.

You give your facts.

I give my facts.

You offer your conclusions.

I offer my conclusions.

We resolve nothing.

My procedure.

You express your opinion.

I express your opinion.

You give your facts.

I give your facts.

You offer your conclusions.

I offer your conclusions.

Result.  If I am wrong and you are right, I learn something.  If you are wrong and I am right, you learn something.

The impediments:

• Who's to say what's right or wrong?
• We should be building bridges not walls.
• There is no right or wrong.
• We should try to find a win-win resolution.

Now to solve the problem.

This is reminiscent of a joke heard on Fareed Zakaria GPS with Fareed Zakaria. 

"Two Soviet economists were talking about the economy.  One was explaining his solution to the economic crisis.  When he was finished, his colleague said, "Yes, it will work in practice, but it won't work in theory."   Therein lies the problem on Capitol Hill.

I did prepare a Fiscal Crisis Solution Worksheet.  You may want to review it. 

The Republicans

 The Republicans claim that closing loopholes will solve the problem.  Hold their feet to the fire.

Slim Fairview's Four Rules of Communication:

• Precision
• Concision
• Enumerate
• Specify

 Demand a bulleted list.

The list of loop-holes to close.

The number of dollars that the Government will receive as a result.

Close all the loop-holes for everyone earning more than one million dollars.

The Democrats

The Democrats demand tax increases.  Okay, have them start producing numbers.

After we come up with the increased revenue figures from closing the loop-holes, we subtract that from the number of dollars we need.  Then we start raising tax rates and calculate the number of dollars the Government will receive.

The top 0.5%  How many dollars?

The top 1.0%  How many dollars?

The top 1.5%  How many dollars?

The top 2.0%  How many dollars?

We add up the number of dollars that the government will receive.

Wealth

The Petersons own a home. Their only asset.  If they sell their home and pay off their mortgage, they will have a net worth of $50,000.

The Andersons own a home.  Their only asset.  If they sell their home and pay off their mortgage, they will have net worth of One Million Dollars. 

The Petersons earn $250,000 a year. Their taxes go up.

The Andersons earn $200,000 a year. Their taxes don't go up.

That is a problem.  Fix it.

Spending

Demand that the Democrats produce a bulleted list of cuts and the number of spending dollars that will not be spent as a result of cuts. (Not as a result of programmes ending. Not as a result of paying bills later.  I didn't just fall off the back of a turnip wagon.)

Provide that there will be no spending increases for 18 months.  Except!

The Stimulus Money requested by The President.

I once pointed out that 800 Billion Dollars would employ 4 million people for 5 years at $40,000 per year. (Please check my math.)  Those jobs never materialised.  This time, a list of who receives money and how much they get!

The nice thing about this process is that it follows the spirit of the old Soviet joke.

A Soviet farmer is attempting to plow his field. He struggles behind a plow pulled by a mule.  Off in the distance he sees his neighbor plowing his field.  He easily follows his plow pulled by two mules.  He looks up to heaven and prays:  "God, I have one mule and I struggle to plow my field. My neighbor has two mules and plows his field easily.  Please, God, kill one of my neighbor's mules."

The solution above will allow each party to feel that it has killed one of the other party's mules.

Regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2012 Slim Fairview

All rights reserved.

If you find anything herein to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked-out lap top and to tuck more than a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank-you note. Slim