Friday, April 29, 2016

Rogoff & Merkel & China, Oh, My!


Something is up.  Think back.

Sarkozy tweets, "Merkel is not the problem.
Prime Minister Biden returns from Berlin to announce The Chancellor is our friend.
& More Recently,
Madame Lagarde Praised Merkel
Merkel initiated a phone conference with President Vladimir Putin
And President Obama again praised Merkel & made a grand pitch for Britain to stay in the EU.

What is up?  I may be onto something.

Most recently, Ken Rogoff, the economist and purported architect of austerity in the EuroUnion has taken a conciliatory turn

He appeared on CNBC to say kind things about the success of our economic stimulus success.  Not so long ago, not so much.
the
I watched Dr. Rogoff on three networks: CNBC, BBC, & CNN.  And each time he said basically the same things:

Even if we go back to 2010 jibber jabber blah blah blah.  
Even if we were to wipe out Greece's entire debt...jibber jabber blah blah blah
(I apoligise for slinging around a lot of highfalutin economics jargon.)


However, when pressed by Mr. Zakaria on the success of the US stimulus programme, Dr. Rogoff made what I considered to be a sarcastic allusion to the economic travails of Puerto Rico then went back to Europe, "Even if we were to wipe out Greece's entire debt....."

I've said too often, If Britain can't leave the EuroUnion, and Merkel knows it, Britain can't bargain a fair deal.   Witness Tsipras and Greece.  My very plain understanding of the situation?  The more dramatic and hysterical the doom and gloom forecast if Britain [Greece] leaves the EuroUnion, the less substance there is to the proposition that a British Exit will be a disaster.  Hearken the the words imputed to the attorney F. Lee Bailey. "When I have the evidence, I pound the evidence; when I have the facts, I pound the facts; when I have nothing, I pound the table."

Will Cameron be Britain's next Wellington or Britain's next Tsipras?

This, in part, explains why I wrote Greek Proposal and Brit IN Brit OUT.

But more important, and not more importantly, recent comments by Carl Icahn on China reflect what I'd said repeatedly about Europe.

Austerity is a failure.  What Europe needs is Capital Investment, economic development, & growth.  In short, economic stimulus. Shorter?  Fiscal policy.  The same thing Mr Icahn said this morning 29 April on CNBC.   This, in a discussion about China.

In 2013 (2. February) I wrote China will begin a global capital investment initiative.  Today, Singapore is the top visitor to my blog two months running.  Singapore is the purported Headquarters of the AIIB.  The most read article?  Emerging Nation Economic Union.  In other words, Heads Up.

I believe the EuroUnion is about to unravel.  Not due to Britain's or Greece’s possible exit; but because of the efforts to keep them in.

Now? The Conciliatory tone taken by Ken Rogoff on CNBC.  And, of course, the alleged leak of a statement by the IMF to Merkel regarding holding Greece to the terms of austerity. This of course leads me to believe that Madame Lagarde holds the reigns of power. [sic]  Perhaps it is the romantic in me.  Ultimately, I started out in life as an English Lit Major.  But realistically, Madame Lagarde is brilliant, successful, and powerful.  And in a battle between hob-nailed boots and spike heeled shoes, Germany has never succeeded in the Hob-nailed boot approach.  Why not?  From the Quotations of Slim Fairview (c) 2016

The multitude can oppress the few, but the few cannot oppress the multitude. Not for very long, anyway.

The Chancellor, who made the cover of Time Magazine for inviting the refugees in will never make the back cover of Time Magazine for creating a crisis that resulted in the Migrants being thrown out.

China has a plan.  The AIIB is part of the plan.  Europe's embracing of the AIIB is not something I neglected to predict.  



"But don't bother listening to me. Everyone always doesn't listen to me."  The Quotations of Slim Fairview

Warmest regards,

Slim.




Copyright © 2016  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.

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