Mr. Putin’s Economic Theatre of Operation.
In WW II we had the Pacific Theatre of Operation and the
European Theatre of Operation. Germany
had the Russian Front. That was the military Option. That was then, this is now.
Globally, the Military Option is no longer viable. It has disappeared into the delusional mist
of nuclear deterrence taking the Cold War Propaganda War with it.
What we have now are two, new, wars.
1. The “Nuclear Free”
safe wars of skirmishes and atrocities that keep us glued to the television
set, freeing us to vent and lament from our safety blanket of nuclear deterrence
and enabling us to feel good about ourselves because we show we care. And,
2. The Real War. The war I call the Economic Theatre of
Operation.
The revelation came amid news reports that the EuroUnion was
looking to attract Ukraine and that President Putin announced intentions to
form a Eurasian Economic Union.
A simplistic interpretation is that Mr. Putin is attempting
to defend the Russian and the Eastern European economies from the European
Economic Union. However, on slightly closer examination, we see that the
EuroUnion Economy is weak. A better
conclusion? Using some basic B-School
analysis, we see that Mr. Putin is taking advantage of a competitor’s weakness
to increase market share and to enhance revenue. However, there is more to it than that alone.
FLASHBACK
The world saw the pictures.
Ronald Reagan at the Berlin Wall, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down
that wall.”
The Wall coming down.
Lech Walesa at the Gdansk Shipyard Rebellion.
Mr. Gorbachev seated atop a tank in Red Square—Fall of the
Soviet Government.
America’s unbridled economic success on programmes like, “Lifestyles
of the Rich and Famous” and “Dynasty”.
The Promise? Free
Market Wealth and Military Support and Protection.
The Reality? Far
from it.
Nature abhors a vacuum. Mr. Putin is stepping into the
breach.
What is Mr. Putin’s Strategy?
1. Move Russia into the 21st Century
2. Shift focus from inward to outward
3. Build Economic and Military Alliances
·
Iran
·
Crimea
·
Syria
4. Build Foreign Policy Credibility
5. Restore cultural pride in Eastern Europe and Russia
6. Build on the shared histories and hardships with Eastern
Europe.
REMEMBER:
Both Eastern Europe and Russia were ground beneath Soviet Military
Occupation.
Both Eastern Europe and Russia were ground beneath German
Military Occupation.
Mr. Putin is in the process of or already has cemented an
oil deal with Iran. This is a new focus
on the Economic Law of Supply and Demand.
You may call it restricting or limiting access. I call it
restricting or limiting demand. Either
way, it is counter intuitive to Freshman Economics. I will explain what this means in another
article. For now, a deal with Iran stabilizing
oil prices and oil revenue is important if not crucial to all parties
concerned.
However, we should also consider this: With the oil deal with Iran, what will be the
change in the dynamics with
·
The Eurasian Economic Union?
·
Iran’s relations with Arab Nations?
·
The Relations between Arab Nations and Russia?
NB I did point out that it will become important for the
Gulf Oil Producing Nations to act to protect future oil revenues!
Now there are some who can see nothing but RED and are attempting
to create a Panic. However, a closer
examination will reveal that Russia has embraced the Chinese Model.
I twice pointed out the difference between Soviet Style
Communism and Chinese Style Communism.
Soviet 5-year Plan
Soviet 10-year Plan
Soviet 20-year Plan
CHINA
Hydro Electric Power dam Project
High Speed Computer Project
High Speed Rail Project.
In addition, I pointed out:
China: Rising middle class, rising economy.
India: Rising middle class, rising economy.
USSR: No middle class, no USSR.
USA: Declining middle class, follow the path of the
trajectory.
Finally, I am suggesting the Mr. Putin may be the only
person reading my blog, because he seems to be alert to the changes in the
Global Economic Paradigm.
CHINA
I pointed out that
China has shifted from looking inward to looking outward.
China is establishing economic and political alliances
globally.
China is moving into Western Asia.
China will succeed because China will do as we did and not
as we say
RUSSIA
Russia has shifted from looking inward to looking outward.
Russia is establishing economic and political alliances
globally.
Russia is moving into Eastern Europe.
Russia will succeed because Russia will do as we did and not
as we say.
EUROUNION
The European Economic Union does not have a strong offer.
Thus far, President Obama has done a fine job on Foreign
Policy. Egypt and Libya are two
examples. And he had strong allies in
each situation. And he was a strong ally in each situation. However, Eurasia is
neither a political theatre of operation nor a military theatre of
operation. This is the Economic Theatre
of Operation. Here President Obama’s allies
(The EuroUnion) have little economic strength.
And, Chancellor Merkel has little or nothing to offer Eastern Europe.
Eastern Europe saw what happened to Southern Europe
Eastern Europe knows how and why it happened.
Eastern Europe knows that Southern Europe fueled the German
economy.
And, they know much, much more.
When I wrote, “Merkel Invades Russia, I wrote about the assault
on the Banks of Cyprus where Russia had sizeable sums on deposit.
When I wrote about Merkel’s Ponzi scheme, I wrote about
Merkel’s attempt to send Madame Lagarde around the world, “Begging for coppers”
Seeking a series of bailouts from a series of sources.
Eastern Europe can easily see that the Chancellor wants
Eastern Europe to feed her Economic War Machine at the expense of Eastern
Europe.
Merkel’s strategy is too obvious. Keep the German economy strung until the
global economy has its turn round, and then declare victory for her policies
and their tenure.
Also, when I wrote “Merkel’s Big Lies", I listed the 10 Propaganda
tricks being used by Merkel in her assault on Southern Europe. This is analogous to the tricks used by
industrialised nations to exploit emerging economies.
The only thing left to mention is this:
In addition to the fact that the Military Option is no
longer viable, the economic zero sum game doesn't work anymore either.
You can heed my admonition now or wiat 50 years for a global
depression. Not a statistical one—a real
one.
Warmest regards,
Slim
If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note. Slim.
Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072
Etas Unis
If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note. Slim.
Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072
Etas Unis
Copyright © 2014 Robert Asken
All rights reserved.
