Tuesday, August 30, 2016

EU Taxes Patience



Congratulations:  

The EU ruling on Apple’s Taxes and Ireland is not about Apple or taxes or Ireland.

  • The EU, first of all,  is shedding light the suffering of a nation that capitulated to the fait-accompli issued by the Eurocrats.  That nation is Greece.
  • The EU has just validated Brexit.
  • The EU has justified those in Ireland who would follow Britain's lead if there was good cause and if they see a pathway to a better future.
  • The EU has just campaigned for an Italian referendum to leave the EuroUnion--and supported same.

And the issue goes beyond the EU Ruling on Ireland and Apple and Taxes.


In my article, "This is Brexit", I suggested the formation of The Exit Nations.
Britain
Greece
Italy  
Portugal
Spain.  

I can now add Ireland.


Over the past six years, I have repeatedly warned that the EuroCrats’ pursuit of Austerity would lead to disaster and explained the inherent flaws in the plan.

I forecast the migrant crisis in Merkel's Big Lies?  In lies number six and seven, I specified the scapegoating and vilification of migrants and the reactionary  rise of the right. The strategies were intended to destabilise the target nation in Merkel's Economic Putsch.



My statement on Brexit was simple:  

If Merkel knows that Britain can't leave the EuroUnion, then Britain can't negotiate reforms.  

Remember, Cameron said repeatedly that he wanted Britain to remain in a reformed EuroUnion.  

He would have had a better chance of success if he'd flown to Arizona, USA to look for the Lost Dutchman Mine.  

I tweeted to Cameron, "Be Britain's next Wellington, not Britain's next Tsipras.

Britain voted to leave and Cameron showed an astounding lack of leadership by resigning.  Witness Greece.  The Greek people voted OXI.  Tsipras met with the EuroCrats, Merkel issued a fait-accompli, Tsipras folded and returned to Greece with his tail between his legs.

Years ago I said, "The problem is not that Europe can't afford Greece. The problem is Europe can't afford Germany."  And, that Greece should leave the EuroUnion.  And I spelled it out.  No one listened.  My views were validated in the recent book reviews of books by Merritt, Galbraith, & Stiglitz in the New York Times Book Review and in a discussion Steve Liesman had with a guest on Squawk Box on CNBC.  

(There is no proof that had I not been distracted by my cat, Zoe--who wanted her tummy rubbed--I would have heard what the guest had said.)

Then we have the paper written by Dr. Ken Rogoff, the purported architect of austerity.  I recently read the article about the youngster majoring in economics who tried running Dr. Rogoff's numbers through the computer and failed to duplicate Rogoff's results.   I was validated, but slow to catch a major detail.

Did Dr. Rogoff's paper go through Peer Review?  There are some who may believe:

  • If the paper did not receive peer review, the paper was worthless.
  • If the paper did receive peer review, the peer review was worthless.


Nonetheless, Austerity was a failure.  And the EuroCrats still clutch retentively to Austerity like a two-year old with his hands down his nappy fondling his own bowel movement..

In This is Brexit, the expedited manœuvre propounded to save the EuroUnion is this simple:

The leaders of the Exit Nations: Britain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, & now Ireland:

Meet

Read through "the rules"

Use a blue pencil to strike out any provision that encroaches on domestic issues and/or national sovereignty

Write up the ultimatum. Eg:

You have 15 days to agree to the demands.

If you do not agree to the demands in 15 days, we will immediately declare the provisions contained herein to be null & void, not in force, and unenforceable.  We will form our own union.


If you need historic validation, consider the Colonial Rebellion of 1776.  

There was no invoking of Rule 50.  

There was no 2-year exit process.

There was no Meeting of The Empire Nations.  

"Before you can leave the Empire, your exit must be approved unanimously by the colonies in the Empire Union: Canada, Australia, India, Hong Kong....et. al."  

Read:  This is Brexit.

This, of course, is metaphorical.  However, it explains, why you don't talk about it.  Why not?  

I explained the reason in The Unspoken Understanding.


Einstein said, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Slim Fairview said,  "By extension, the argument can be made that the definition of sanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same results.

Meaning?  
Europe has embraced austerity.  
All austerity measures have failed to improve the European economy.
The US embraced economic stimulus.  
The US economy improved.  
The EuroCrats should embrace a successful strategy, not cling to a failed strategy.  
Specially not one based on a paper that has purportedly been repudiated.

The frenzied declamations prior to the Brexit Vote served to affirm the validity of the Brexit vote.  The more hysterical the predictions of disaster grew, the more desperate the EuroCrats appeared.

After the Brexit vote, the face saving arrogance:  "...don't let the door hit you in the bum on the way out." made the EuroCrats look more ridiculous than they did by Britain's rebuff of the Union.

The EuroUnion can be saved. The European Economy can be improved. However, not by adhering to Merkelism: an economic paradigm based on the fear that someone, somewhere, is earning a living.

My next admonition.  

To Prime Minister Matteo Renzi:
"Be Italy's next Garibaldi, not Italy's new Berlusconi."
Before Italy holds a referendum or an election, meet with Britain, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain;  Discuss the reforms; Write them up; and Issue the ultimatum.  

If the EuroCrats refuse to accept them, let the EuroCrats bear the burden of the collapse of the European Economic Union.










Best of luck.

Warmest regards,

Slim.



Copyright ©  2016  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.

Monday, August 22, 2016

Merritt, Galbraith, and Stiglitz

I read the reviews in The New York Times Book Review.

I read the reviews of the new books by Giles Merritt, James K. Galbraith, and Joseph Stiglitz.  I read with rapt attention. This, because I've been writing articles about the EuroCrisis for the past 6 years.

Of course, The Drs. Merritt, Galbraith, and Stiglitz don't need me to explain the EuroCrisis to them.  And I don't need them to explain the EuroCrisis to me.

"Everybody knows what everybody knows."  ~Slim Fairview.  
The first of "The Quotations of Slim Fairview (c) 2016

When there is a crisis, or a disaster, as with the European Economy, it is a sad indictment of Economics that Economists will tell us what happened and why rather than tell us what will happen and what to do about it.

I am in good company.  

Chancellor Merkel has been a strict adherent to austerity.  On the other hand, President Obama has been an advocate of Economic Stimulus.  Now, to insure that I do not sound too Keynesian, let me express it in Republican Terms.  "You have to spend money to make money."

Ken Rogoff, the purported architect of austerity expended some energy making the Network rounds.  He appeared on CNBC, on CNN, and on BBC--World News America.  Each time he said the same thing.

"Even if we go back to 2010...."

Can we go back to 2010?  No? What else have you got?

"Even if we were to wipe out Greece's entire debt...."

Can we wipe out Greece's entire debt?  No? What else have you got?

When Fareed Zakaria asked Dr. Rogoff, point blank, about the success of President Obama's economic stimulus programme, Dr. Rogoff made a sarcastic allusion to the economic travails of Puerto Rico and returned to Europe.  "Even if we were to wipe out Greece's entire debt...."

Now, there is Urban Legend suggesting that some youngsters majoring in Economics tried running Dr. Rogoff's numbers through the computer and failed to duplicate his results.  The story died with no resolution, or conclusion.  It is still urban legend.  


Back to the EuroCrisis and Slim Fairview's Empirical Method of Analysis.


Did we try austerity?
Yes.
Did the European economy get more high, good, better?
No.
Did the European economy get more low, bad, worse?
Yes.
Conclusion?
Abandon austerity: embrace economic stimulus.


We all know what Einstein said.  "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Slim Fairview builds on that.  "By extension, the argument can be made that sanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same results."  Meaning.  We had economic stimulus.  We had good results.  Europe embraces economic stimulus, Europe has good results.

Some may cite slowing global growth as part of the cause of Europe's problems.  Others may say that Europe's economic travails have been part of the cause of slowing global growth.


Heart Warming Moments.


When the reviewer, Paul Hockenos, imputed the following to the author, James K. Galbraith:

"The EU erred egregiously in making draconian austerity policies the price of Greece's rescue...."  And concluded the paragraph, "Greece's withdrawal from the Eurozone, he suggests, would have been preferable."  I wrote, the problem is not that Europe can't afford Greece.  The problem is that Europe can't afford Germany.

The latter, a sentiment expressed to Steve Liesman on Squawkbox by a guest as Mr. Liesman indicated with..."So in other words, what you're saying is Europe can't afford Germany."


The review by Roger Lowenstein of The Euro, the book by Nobel Laureate Dr. Joseph Stiglitz was more dense.  Just as Mr. Lowenstein says of the book.  (imagine an economic text written by Michael Moore.)  I would have written, imagine an economic text written by Marie-Claire Blais.  

Mr. Lowenstein "indicts" Dr. Stiglitz for descending to slurs evoking the Nazi era; but, concludes the paragraph with, "The fact is, German industry is more productive."

I reject the Nazi slurs.  That the German economy benefited from deficit spending elsewhere in Europe has been generously expressed. However,  I would have written, Merkel fed the German economic machine at the expense of the Satellite Nations in southern Europe.

The example "US v. EuroUnion" vis-a-vis their respective structures is something I expressed--perhaps not eloquently--several years ago in an interview with solotablet.it   

As far as the democratisation of the EuroUnion, I would suggest that The European Commission exists for one reason and one reason only.  To justify the existence of The European Commission.


MIGRANTS are NOT the problem.  Merkel is the problem.  However, I called that in 2013 when I wrote:

Merkel's Big Lies?  Ten tactics used in an Economic Putsch.  Or, Merkel's Economic Theatre of Operation.

"Austerity only makes it sound bad.  I just wanted to balance the budget."

"Don't you think I've seen the posters of me dressed as a Nazi?  Poor me. I'm the victim here."

And, I did forecast the unrest and the rise of the right.

I posted  Greek Proposal.  Tsipras folded.  Merkel issued a fait-accompli, and Tsipras returned to Greece with his tail between his legs.  

I also wrote  This is Brexit.

"But don't bother listening to me. Everyone always doesn't listen to me." ~Slim Fairview

The last quotation from "The Quotations of Slim Fairview (c) 2016

Warmest regards,

Slim

P.S.  If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book & to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the Thank you note.

Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072



Copyright (c) 2016  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.