Polish the Skin Off AAPL

In a frantic effort to polish the Apple, Tim Cook has polished the skin off the Apple and it's starting to brown. Acidulated water please.

While people are looking at earnings reports, sales figures, and charts and graphs, there are more important indicators of Apple's health that I call Markers.


MARKER ONE:

It all began with something Mr. Cook said that he should have said in his head before saying it aloud.

This is what I heard,

Apple is fine.  The problems come from 
The China slowdown
Tariffs.
The slowing global economy
The trade war.
But Apple is doing fine.

The Analogy?

General Motors is doing fine. The real problem is that people are buying fewer cars: Millennials are using ride shares and older people are keeping their cars longer.  But General Motors is doing fine.


MARKER TWO:

When Tim Cook said, I want Apple's legacy to be that we cared about people.  True, there is a major plus to the Apple Watch saving peoples lives.  But the success of this comes about only if Apple is in good health.  (Hold that thought)


Day 1.  What I heard: People don't have to worry about their information.  We are a manufacturing company. We make machines. We don't store data.

Day 2. What I heard:  We are going into the health care industry.  We will have access to all your personal health and financial information.


MARKER THREE

False Analogies:

What I heard:  General Motors saying to Jim Cramer, "We aren't going to release the number of units sold.  It doesn't make sense.  We make so many different brands at so many different price points.  We make Pontiacs and Oldsmobiles. We make Buick Electras and Skylarks.  We make the Chevy Impala, and the Caprice, and the Bel Aire.  We make the Cadillac Sedan Deville, the Coup Deville, the Eldorado, The Seville.  It doesn't make sense to release the number of cars we sell.  If you go to the supermarket and put food in your cart and get to the checkout, the cashier doesn't ask, how many items do you have in your cart.

Would you buy that?



MARKER FOUR

Some stuff various people said on CNBC when discussing Apple.

I-Phone growth is stagnant.  They will have to raise prices.

Apple won't always be the leader of the pack.

They said they will be moving into Emerging Markets.  People in Emerging Markets can't afford a $1000. phone.

We are selling services. Seriously?  With a flat growth curve in phone sales.

Apple is the first Trillion Dollar Company.
Apple was a Trillion Dollar Company.  Then, Apple dropped to $700 Million.

Jim Cramer said, "I used to pay a G for an EKG. Now I get it for Free.  [Shop at Crazy Eddie's. His prices are insane.] This reminds me of Ackman selling Penney Stocks.



MARKER FIVE


Tim Cook admits his mistakes.  He admits he missed the boat on Netflix.  He also missed the boat on Time Warner.  On CNBC it was reported that the Apple board discussed buying Time Warner in 2015.  Slim Fairview wrote the article saying Apple should buy Time Warner 11. February 2013.
Two year is a long time in Tech.


MARKER SIX

We are developing original content.
Everyone is developing original content.


MARKER SEVEN

Name calling.

The haters, the haters, the haters.
Seriously?  Anyone who has doubts about Apple is suddenly a hater.  Name calling is a weapon in the arsenal of a twelve year old.  Repudiate the reasons for concern.  Don't attack those who are concerned



Sometimes the analysis has more to do with numbers.

What happens when a Chinese Tech Wizard invents 
"The Pomegranate"?

I wrote in a review, if Ron Johnson had read only the first three pages of Sandy Richardson's Book, 
Business Results Revolution, he would still be CEO at JCP.

I also wrote, On pages 44 and 45 Richardson demonstrates how to address the issues confronting Tim Cook and Apple.

I was going to quote the second and third paragraphs on page 45.  Instead, read the review, read the book.  It's not that hard.


Sincerest regards,

Slim.


If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Google Pixelbook and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.  Slim

Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA
18072

Copyright © 2019  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.

Tim Cook's Algorithm

The Decision Making Algorithm 
 

Tim Cook has two choices.

1.  Comply

2. Defy


If he complies, the legal case is rendered moot.

If Cook Defies, there are two outcomes.

The Court rules for Mr. Cook

The Court rules against Mr. Cook.


If the Court rules against Mr. Cook he may:

Claim the moral high ground,
Blame he FBI
Blame the Court
Claim he did everything to protect the privacy of customers from Government Intrusion
Fail to keep the encryption private.


If the Court rules in favour of Mr. Cook, Mr. Cook may

Claim victory,
Trigger action by Congress that will have a negative long-term impact.
Provide a Market Penetration and Ad Campaign opportunity for his competitors.

YOUR

LOGO

HERE

We will protect our customers' privacy against Government Intrusion.

We will protect our Customers from Terrorist Attack

Will expose the Apple Brand to irreparable harm if a terrorist attack is facilitated by Apple Encryption.

Will invite other nations to promote their National Brand Phone Company and trigger nationalism by its citizens.

A terrorist attack in other nations will be blamed on Apple and on the US.

Look at the history Rights v. Security.

Efforts to legislate security measures were thwarted by those who claimed the efforts would have a chilling effect on our Civil Liberties.

9/11 The attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

Result:

Body scanners and strip searches at airports.

The Citizens' Response?

"Well, it is an intrusion into our civil liberties, but if it keeps us safe....."

The new normal?  Body Scanners and Strip Searches and Public Concession.

Tim Cook is in a lose lose situation.  

I understand the problem.

If I keep it quiet, the word will get out and I will lose street cred.

If I go public, I will have broad based public support and come out a hero.

The entire paradigm surrounding the Apple v. FBI is not new. It is old. The same rhetoric was applied time and time again with the same results, time and time again.

Einstein: The definition of Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.  Welcome to our National Insanity.

Warmest regards,

Slim.

slimfairview@yaoo.com

Slimviews@gmail.com

Copyright (c) 2016 Bob Asken

All rights reserved.

Tim Cooks Aapl 's Brand

This is a business article.  However, we must address some of the clutter.

On CNBC Mr. Wozniak cited Constitutional Rights.  

Here is the IV Amendment.

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

Now, let's move on to the business issue. Because it is the business issues that will make or break Apple's future in the medium and long term.

When I wrote Apple Meets Hollywood, I was discussing the corporate success parabola.

Two years ago I suggested that APPLE and Facebook buy AOL Time Warner CNN. The reason? Content. $1.5 Billion Dollars + 1.5 Billion Users = Profit$ It never happened. However, others have been buying up content. Now, Apple is looking for content (original content) for their devices.  

I also wrote

At the same time, another topic near and dear to my heart, is the move to move “In sync” with Cisco. Why? To make Apple products more useful to more people.

You all know the basic paradigm.

• An organization grows large.

• Economies to scale meet the law of diminishing returns.

• Efficiencies decline.

• Focus on the quality of some products causes the quality of others to suffer.

• There is contention among employees working on different projects.

• Profits will attract competitors.

• A large number of competitors will nibble at profits.

• Unique features of competing products will create pressure to improve your product.

• Pressure on employees (and on bosses) will effect morale negatively.

• Some competitors will go out of business due to bad products or management.

• Other competitors will blend together through M&A creating larger competitors.

• Those competitors will benefit from economies to scale as they grow.

• There will be market penetration. And innovation. And competition.

• They will innovate and or cut prices causing you more pressure.

• Big companies will begin to sell off bits of itself to:

• Concentrate on our core

• Do what we do best

• Cut costs

• Become more efficient

• Focus on R&D

• Better serve our valued and appreciated customers.

Now, APPLE is meeting with Cisco. Great Move.

The real issue with FBI v. AAPL does, ultimately come down to a business issue.  Tim Cook is running the risk of rebranding AAPL in the worst way.

ANALOGY

During the Jimmy Carter gas crisis, Detroit (Synecdoche for The US Auto Industry) refused to embrace the smaller, 4-cylinder automobile. 

This offered the Japanese Auto Industry to penetrate the market.  

Japanese cars were not only relabeled as the economical car, they were soon relabeled as the ecological car.

The US auto industry lost market share.

Now look at the cell-phone.

Mr. Cook knows what he is saying, and knows what some of his customers are hearing. But ignores what others are hearing.

As Yogi Berra said, "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is."

As Mr. Cook is pounding and propounding TRUST, he is speaking only to those people he wants to speak to.  However, others listening.  When he says, "Trust" others hear what he has to say.  By way of metaphor, right now, a terrorist is saying, "Let's buy i-phones. We can trust Apple to protect our privacy."  And exaggeration?  No.

And remember, we did capture Osama bin Laden, by tracking him through cell phones. 

And we need not discuss all phones or all technology. The safe and face-saving course would be for Apple to hack into one phone, give the information to the FBI, and have done with it.

Mr. Cook, however, is in a lose-lose situation.

1. His competitors can relabel i-phones as The Terrorist's Phone.

2. He can lose the case in the courts and lose a lot more than his is willing or can afford to lose.

All this, strictly, from a business viewpoint.

Competitors can use this as an opportunity to penetrate Apple's market.  A spirit of nationalism will move the market, the consumer, away from Apple to their own countries phones.

In addition, it is possible someone else will hack the iphone. The entire issue will become moot, and Tim Cook and Apple will suffer loss of face.  In Asian markets, this will become a death-knell to the Apple brand.

The issue is not privacy, rights, or national security.  The entire issue involves how Tim Cook handles a threat to his brand, his market share, and his bottom line.

Warmest regards,

Slim.

Slimfairview@yahoo.com

If anyone finds this to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book or i-pad & to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note. 



Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072

Copyright (c) 2016 Bob Asken

All rights reserved.