China Does as We Did

"The many may oppress the few, but the few may not oppress the many.  Not for very long, anyway."

The Quotations of Slim Fairview.

Do you understand why the Chinese Government raised 500 million people from poverty to the Middle Class?

China created a Consumer Class
China created an investor Class
But most important (and not most importantly) China gave half a billion Chinese people a vested interest in the success of the Chinese Economy and a reason to work towards it.

"China will succeed because China will do as we did, not as we say."  Slim Fairview.

Remember these from our past?

Universal Public School Education
Manifest Destiny
The Trans-continental Railroad
The Monroe Doctrine
The Panama Canal
The Hoover Dam
The Labor Movement
The G.I. Bill
Affordable Single Family Homes

Capital Investment + Economic Stimulus =
Economic Development + Growth
Slim's Paradigm

How many of them has China implemented?

The Cultural Revolution
The Economic Revolution
Nicaragua Canal  (Pending)
Hydro-Electric Power Dam Project (Three Gorges Dam)
T.P.P.
South China Sea
Belt and Road

China appears to be emulating our history.

"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it." ~Santayana

"Those who remember history are able to repeat it."
~Slim Fairview

The Quotations of Slim Fairview © 2019

Will China Implode? 

The Media Still Doesn't Understand China


If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.
Thank you.



Sincerest regards,

Slim


Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072


Copyright © 2019 Robert Asken
All rights reserved.

The Media Doesn't Understand China

How naive can the news media be about China?

Almost 10 years ago, I tweeted, "When the numbers out of China are bad, the Wall Street Experts gloat.  When the numbers out of China are good, the Wall Street Experts doubt the numbers."

Things have not improved.

The experts, investors, analysts, are dancing around the glow-in-the-dark totem pole of China's recent economic travails and domestic peccadilloes.  To me, it all seems like chest thumping (or in milleniology--chest bumping) bravado.

I will try to explain things again.

Through the magic of metaphor, you are starting a business.  You're not a creative, innovative, high-tech entrepreneur.  You are simply starting a business.

You've tightened your belt.  You've been living on a shoe-string budget.  You've elevated your bank account from poverty to the investment class.  Everything you've made has gone into savings.  But the journey has only just begun. 

Now that you've started your business, every penny you make goes into your business.  At home, you have oatmeal for breakfast, half a peanut butter sandwich for lunch, and Ramen Noodles for dinner. 

All your spending is committed to growing your business.

Gasoline to see clients or customers, parking meters, photocopy fees, ink-jet cartridges, postage.  You get the picture.

Now, on to China.

China raised 500-700 million people from poverty to the middle class.  That was the domestic economic activity.  Now, China has the Belt and Road Initiative. 

Back to you.

Your competitors deride and ridicule and dismiss you.  They mock your peanut butter lunches.  Meanwhile, however, you are cold calling.  You are building your client base. Your customer base.  You are gaining referrals.  All your money is being poured into your efforts to attract and keep customers.  Soon, you know, it will pay off handsomely.

China is tightening its belt a little more.  The Belt and Road Initiative is its business. 

Here is some guidance:

"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."
Santayana.

"Those who remember history are able to repeat it."
Slim Fairview.

"Those who never learned history are doomed--period!"
Slim Fairview.

"China will succeed because China will do as we did and not as we say." Slim Fairview.

But most important (and not most importantly):

"In the tale of The Tortoise and the Hare, the Turtle didn't win because slow and steady wins the race.  The Turtle won because the Rabbit was stupid."  Slim Fairview. 



All quotations except as noted are from
The Quotations of slim Fairview. © 2019
All rights reserved.

Sincerest regards,

Slim.

"If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book & to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with a thank you note." Slim.

Robert Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA
18072

Copyright © 2019 Robert Asken
All rights reserved.

Isaac Newton's AAPL

Sir Isaac Newton was sitting under a tree when an apple fell and hit him on the head.  He suddenly had a great insight.
"I am going to rethink buying Apple.  Both the product and the stock."

There was a confluence of reasons.

1.  While Apple admits to missing out on Netflix, there is no mention of Time Warner.  It was reported on CNBC that Apple discussed the idea in 2015.  However, I wrote the article 11 February 2013. 

AAPL + FB Should buy AOL, Time Warner, CNN


2.  Apple is planning to go into Original Content.  Then, too, so is everyone else.  They missed a base to build on.  Did AT&T lose money on buying Time Warner?

3. Samsung announces a new foldable phone. Actually, this is not a cell phone.  This is a computer. And, Samsung announced 5G.  The news reports?  Apple will be coming out with its own 5G.  Ho hum.

4. I posed the question, "What happens when a Chinese tech company announces the launch of the Pomegranate? About 60 years ago, the pomegranate was known as a Chinese Apple.  I started out in life as "an English Major". I would call that foreshadowing. 

5. Tim Cook is touting the Apple Watch.  A fine piece of equipment.  However, does it work independently or does it require an i-Phone?

6.  Tim Cook chose to distance himself from data-gather-security-issues claiming we make machines. In the next breath, he announced a move into health care.  This, I understand, requires Apple to gather and retain every personal, medical, and financial aspect of everyone's life. 

7.  While the health care is a fine strategic move, losing out on 5G, competition in the phone business, competition from China, losing out on "content", and moving into credit cards with Goldman Sachs impugns the veracity of Tim Cook's claim on personal data.

A few more articles about Apple

Newton's AAPL

Polish the Skin Off AAPL

Apple, Google, Facebook, India

And the Winner Is...

AAPL Meets Hollywood



Regards,
Slim

If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Google Pixelbook [or an Apple Mac Book--I will keep an open mind.] and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.
Sincerely,
Slim.

Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072

Copyright (c) 2019 Bob Asken
All Rights Reserved

Polish the Skin Off AAPL

In a frantic effort to polish the Apple, Tim Cook has polished the skin off the Apple and it's starting to brown. Acidulated water please.

While people are looking at earnings reports, sales figures, and charts and graphs, there are more important indicators of Apple's health that I call Markers.


MARKER ONE:

It all began with something Mr. Cook said that he should have said in his head before saying it aloud.

This is what I heard,

Apple is fine.  The problems come from 
The China slowdown
Tariffs.
The slowing global economy
The trade war.
But Apple is doing fine.

The Analogy?

General Motors is doing fine. The real problem is that people are buying fewer cars: Millennials are using ride shares and older people are keeping their cars longer.  But General Motors is doing fine.


MARKER TWO:

When Tim Cook said, I want Apple's legacy to be that we cared about people.  True, there is a major plus to the Apple Watch saving peoples lives.  But the success of this comes about only if Apple is in good health.  (Hold that thought)


Day 1.  What I heard: People don't have to worry about their information.  We are a manufacturing company. We make machines. We don't store data.

Day 2. What I heard:  We are going into the health care industry.  We will have access to all your personal health and financial information.


MARKER THREE

False Analogies:

What I heard:  General Motors saying to Jim Cramer, "We aren't going to release the number of units sold.  It doesn't make sense.  We make so many different brands at so many different price points.  We make Pontiacs and Oldsmobiles. We make Buick Electras and Skylarks.  We make the Chevy Impala, and the Caprice, and the Bel Aire.  We make the Cadillac Sedan Deville, the Coup Deville, the Eldorado, The Seville.  It doesn't make sense to release the number of cars we sell.  If you go to the supermarket and put food in your cart and get to the checkout, the cashier doesn't ask, how many items do you have in your cart.

Would you buy that?



MARKER FOUR

Some stuff various people said on CNBC when discussing Apple.

I-Phone growth is stagnant.  They will have to raise prices.

Apple won't always be the leader of the pack.

They said they will be moving into Emerging Markets.  People in Emerging Markets can't afford a $1000. phone.

We are selling services. Seriously?  With a flat growth curve in phone sales.

Apple is the first Trillion Dollar Company.
Apple was a Trillion Dollar Company.  Then, Apple dropped to $700 Million.

Jim Cramer said, "I used to pay a G for an EKG. Now I get it for Free.  [Shop at Crazy Eddie's. His prices are insane.] This reminds me of Ackman selling Penney Stocks.



MARKER FIVE


Tim Cook admits his mistakes.  He admits he missed the boat on Netflix.  He also missed the boat on Time Warner.  On CNBC it was reported that the Apple board discussed buying Time Warner in 2015.  Slim Fairview wrote the article saying Apple should buy Time Warner 11. February 2013.
Two year is a long time in Tech.


MARKER SIX

We are developing original content.
Everyone is developing original content.


MARKER SEVEN

Name calling.

The haters, the haters, the haters.
Seriously?  Anyone who has doubts about Apple is suddenly a hater.  Name calling is a weapon in the arsenal of a twelve year old.  Repudiate the reasons for concern.  Don't attack those who are concerned



Sometimes the analysis has more to do with numbers.

What happens when a Chinese Tech Wizard invents 
"The Pomegranate"?

I wrote in a review, if Ron Johnson had read only the first three pages of Sandy Richardson's Book, 
Business Results Revolution, he would still be CEO at JCP.

I also wrote, On pages 44 and 45 Richardson demonstrates how to address the issues confronting Tim Cook and Apple.

I was going to quote the second and third paragraphs on page 45.  Instead, read the review, read the book.  It's not that hard.


Sincerest regards,

Slim.


If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Google Pixelbook and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.  Slim

Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA
18072

Copyright © 2019  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.

CHINA NOW GLOBAL BUYER?

Economy World Quoting the Washington Post. "The Chinese are now buying as much stuff as Americans, a game-changer for the world economy." - Washington Post. This repudiates Slim's Paradigm. China    is the Global Seller. The US  is the Global Buyer Reality Check With links to related articles at the end. China has 1 Billion 300 Million people The US has ...........300 Million people If China creates 300 Million Creative, innovative, high-tech entrepreneurs. China has 1 Billion people to do the work. If the US creates 300 Million Creative, innovative, high-tech entrepreneurs, the US has no one to do the work. If we convert 25% of our population into creative, innovative,  high-tech entrepreneurs, China still has 4 times as many workers. Choice:

Each American Does the work of 4 people Robots replace 3 out of 4 American workers. We better makes friends. Fast. Get edified. Slim

If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note. Slim.

Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072

LinkedIn Profile

slimfairview@yahoo.com


FURTHER READING

China: QE and Emerging Nations.

China: Not the What? the Where! with links to related China Articles by Slim Fairview.


Copyright (c) 2018  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.

Hillary Redux

Hillary Clinton coulda won

Hillary Clinton woulda won.

The reason why Hillary didn't win is due only to the strategy that failed.


It was the wrong strategy.  If it were the right strategy, Hillary would be POTUS.

But to prove my point, I will explain the biggest blunders and some of the solutions for the next election and will get an argument from everybody.  Not on the basis of substance.  But by those in hot pursuit of symbolic gestures seeking validation.


Beyond the Presidency, the Democrats failed to reclaim The House, failed to reclaim The Senate.

These are incontrovertible facts.  Not opinions.

Let's get started.


The first thing to touch on is the mea culpa by the media.


WHY?  HOW? 

We failed to predict the outcome of the election.  Why? How?
I know, let's switch the topic of this article to why Donald Trump won, point fingers, vilify the opposition and claim, if not victory, at least the moral high ground.

That speaks volumes.



FIRST OF ALL:

It's called Newton's 3rd Law of Physics.  The pendulum swings both ways.

Now, if you are among the generation of those who ran the campaign, you remember:

Just because it always happens doesn't mean it will happen again.
That's negative.
That's disempowering.
That's disrespectful.
That's self-defeating.

Just because you were right last time, doesn't mean you will be right this time.  Just because you were right this time, doesn't mean you will be right the next time.

The first failure, then, is not the failure to concede the existence of Newton's 3rd Law.  It is the denial of it's validity and refusal to ask,

"Why does this happen?  What can we do about it?"


Routinely, the switch is due to voter dissatisfaction.

"Your ideas failed.  We will try their ideas."
"Their ideas failed.  We will try your ideas again."

Instead, ask:

What are the Republicans selling?
Why do people like what the Republicans are selling?
Is there anything we can co-opt--incorporate SOME of their ideas into our platform to improve our chances of keeping the Oval Office?



FAILED POSTURE

We all know about Donald Trump's record with women.  We also know all about Bill Clinton's record with women.  The attack on Donald Trump did not fizzle out.  The attack had no fizz to begin with.

Let's turn the tables with a Saturday Night Live style skit for the purpose of illumination.  Focus on the lesson only.  Not the lesson you want.  What people really hear. Not what you want people to hear.  Then I will offer the solution.  A learning opportunity.


THE DEBATE

                   
                Wolf Blitzer

Mrs. Clinton, would you like to make an opening statement?


                Mrs. Clinton

Thank you, Wolf.  Yes I would.  My opponent preys on women, he's a misogynist, a degenerate, a pig, he's unfit to be President, let's all hate him. Vote for me.


                Wolf Blitzer

A very well thought out and sensitive opening statement, Mrs. Clinton. Very Presidential.  Now, Mr. Trump, is there any excuse you have for your despicable behavior illuminate by our former first Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton in her brilliant and sensitive opening statement?


                Trump

Well, Mr. Blitzer, the only thing I can say is that I am a little disappointed with my opponents opening statement when you consider that her husband, Bill Clinton, was impeached for worse----


                Mrs. Clinton

There he goes again. There he goes again. Taking the low road, taking the low road. But as my good friend and First Lady said to me, when they go low, you go high.  And I refuse to sink to my opponents level. I'm taking the high road. I'm taking the high road.

                Wolf Blitzer

Good for you Mrs. Clinton.  Thank you for raising the level of this campaign to the American values we cherish and hold so dear.


Now!  Do you see how things can be portrayed?  Don't bitch and moan.  The strategy had no fizz to begin with.  This is the right way to handle the problem.



THE RIGHT WAY.

                Mrs. Clinton

Wolf, I am not going to discuss my opponents record with women because my husband, Bill, was impeached for worse behavior.   But let me emphasise.  I am not Bill Clinton.  I am Hillary Clinton.  I will let the media focus on my opponents record while I stick to the issues and outline for the American people how I intend to solve the problems with Health Care, the Economy, Unemployment, National Security, and the Environment.


If you don't believe me, I will cite someone with rather substantial credentials.

There is a right way and a wrong way to handle that issue.  
As President Lyndon B. Johnson said,

"If you have a problem, shine a light on it."




DEPLORABLES

I'm watching favorable sources on CNN.  Nancy Pelosi is the guest.  Pelosi throws Bill Clinton under the bus.  Pelosi supports part of Trump's Campaign Platform.  "Nafta is bad."

When asked by the presenter,  How do you respond to your critics that you knifed President Obama in the back with your failure to support TPP, APEC, whatever?

Mrs. Pelosi responded, "That's not a fair criticism.  I just wanted to take a closer look.  I didn't want it to be another NAFTA.   NAFTA was bad for the economy.  NAFTA cost American jobs.  NAFTA was a disaster."

Nancy Pelosi said that.

Instead of the Democrats co-opting part of the Trump Campaign, Trump leveraged part of the Democrat's campaign platform inflicted on Hillary by Bernie Sanders.  I am a globalist.  I posted PowerPoint Presentations to support same.

NAFTA was a Bill Clinton deal.  Mrs. Pelosi threw Bill Clinton under the Bus.  There is something else I said.  Hillary Clinton is getting more help from her Republican critics and opponents than she is from her Democratic friends and supporters.


APPEAL TO WOMEN


While Hillary Clinton was attempting to appeal to women, she pulled the rug out from under herself.


Back to the SNL paradigm.

               
                Women in the Commercial

Nafta put my Dad out of work. 
Nafta put my husband out of work. 
Nafta put my brother out of work. 
Nafta put my son out of work. 
They can't find jobs. 

Nafta was bad for the economy,
Nafta cost American jobs,
Nafta was a disaster. 
Nancy Pelosi said so. 
Nafta was a Bill Clinton deal.

How dare you call
Our Dads,
Our husbands,
Our brothers,
Our sons, 
A basket of deplorables?


BUT WAIT. THERE'S MORE.

If unemployed, blue collar, working class white men are out of work and angry, then....

Twice as many unemployed, blue collar, working class black men are out of work and they are twice as angry.  And so they should be.  But I will focus on that specifically later in the article.

The Clinton Campaign ignored the unemployed men, Black and White.  And remember, not only did the African American community refuse to turn out for Hillary Clinton, the African American community also refused to turn out for the Democrats running for Congress.  Need I remind anyone, the Democrats failed to reclaim both or either house of Congress?  Repeatedly!

You don't win elections by ignoring a large voting block. 
A large voting block of unemployed men, Black White, Latino.




WOMEN

President Obama knew he had the support of the Black community.  (Something Clinton and the Democrats did not have).  President Obama needed White votes.  As the old saying goes, when looking for votes:  "Fish where there are fish."

Mrs. Clinton had the Woman Vote. (Almost).  But Hillary Clinton did not fish for votes among unemployed men: Black, White, Latino.


FARE v. FAIR

It's Black History month.  I'm watching one of the C-Span specials.  We are back at the Watts Riots.
A CBS reporter is talking to a Black Woman near "the projects".  She is explaining how hard it is to live, to get by, to feed and care for her children at the end of the month when benefits run out.

The CBS reporter wants to know, aren't there any [programmes, agencies, services] available?

The woman tells the reporter in Plain English......"We don't need no handouts.  We need jobs."

No handouts!  Jobs.  We need jobs.  Jobs!  JOBS! 


In my own blunt way:

Franklin D. Roosevelt paid white men to go to work.
Lyndon B. Johnson paid black men to stay home.

Franklin D. Roosevelt gave Workfare to white men.
Lyndon B. Johnson gave Welfare to black men.




MOMS

I don't know what percentage of mothers have at least one if not more than one son.  Mom's have daughters. Mom's have sons. 


Back to SNL


Fade in:   Seven year old boy sitting on the floor in front of the television set watching a Hillary Clinton campaign ad.

                Little Boy

Mommy, who is that lady and why does she hate me?

                Mommy
Who?


                Little Boy
 
That lady on television.


                Mommy

That's Hilary Clinton.  She wants to be President.  If she wins the election, she will be the first woman President.  She doesn't hate you. Why did you say she hates you?


                Little Boy

Every time I see her she keeps talking about girls and about daughters.  She never says anything about boys. She never says anything about sons.  Mrs. Smith has two boys and a girl.  Mrs. Jones has two girls and a boy,  What about them. Are they voting for Hillary Clinton?

Cut to:  Sepia tone.  Melodramatic Music.  Mommy with anguished, tormented look.


                    V.O

Oh, my.  I never thought of that.  What do we tell our boys?  What do we tell our sons?  Can I say, because little boys are competent and don't need help?  Can I tell him, he has special privileges and little girls get cheated and she's helping the underdogs?  Can I tell him little boys are despicable deplorables?  What do the mothers of sons tell their sons?


Mrs. Clinton won 52% of the woman vote.  Mrs. Clinton lost 48% of the woman vote.  Mrs. Clinton forgot: 

"There are no unintended consequences.  Only unwanted consequences."  ~ Slim Fairview

Deplorables makes a fine sound-bite.  Even if falls short of the high road.  You may be right about Donald Trump.  But you're not attacking Trump.  You're attacking the fathers, sons, husbands, and brothers of the women who vote.  And, as Grandma Millie said on the topic of coming between married people:

"Two heads on one pillow."




THE MEDIA


Before the election, I tweeted, If Donald Trump gets elected, he can thank Wolf Blitzer.

Why? 

The more you say something (outrageous) the more you blunt its impact.


I can see the boys sitting around the lunch table in the Millard P. Fillmore Middle School cafeteria, and giggling over their jokes.  Take out the word President and put in Principal, you're in Middle School. Take out the word Principal and put in the word President, you have late night comedy.

I learned during Sophomore year of high school from a great teacher,  It's not a good thing for Charlie if everyone loves Charlie.  There has to be at least one person in the back of the room who says, I don't like Charlie.  If he knows someone doesn't like him, Charlie will be careful about doing his job.

Take out Charlie and put in Hillary, and you have the same lesson.  Unfortunately, the response fell short.  "We have critics.  What are they saying?  How can we convince them that they are wrong?"

a. Attack our critics
b. Attack their candidate
c. Praise our candidate
e. Address their concerns to relieve their fears.


Mrs. Clinton had too many fans.  Critics were vilified.  No one did the research.  No one did the analysis.  No one addressed the concerns of Trump supporters to alleviate their fears.  And, in plain English,  e-mails, Comey, the FBI, and "crooked Hillary" had nothing to do with it.  Few people cared about the e-mails.  Campaign sound-bites.  News teasers.  Redefine their concerns, address the concerns they don't have, ignore the concerns they do have, lose the election.

On CNN, the focus during President Obama's re-election bid was the birther issue.  Ridiculous, right? But if you keep repeating it, the outrageous claims lose their outrageous punch.  Some people wonder why CNN keeps reporting on the issue.  To ridicule Donald Trump or the Mitt Romney campaign? 

Once, will do it.  By the third time it becomes part of the urban legend.  The claims lose their outrageous impact.  Some, perfectly well-balanced, middle of the road people will wonder why CNN keeps bringing up the issue.   By the way,  the third report, where Donald Trump claimed to have documents, showed up on The Situation Room, and had no documents was the last time I watched The Situation Room.  I don't want "coverage."  I want News.

Coverage.

I have documents.
Come on The Situation Room and show us.

News:

I have documents.
Show us the documents then you can come on The Situation Room.

It is that simple.  But wait, there's more.


In a fine example of linguistic legerdemain, Donald Trump announced:

They started it and I'm going to finish it.  President Barack Obama was born in the United States. Case closed.

Do you remember who started it? 
Do you remember who kept reporting it? 
Do you remember who put an end to it? 
Media professionals are supposed to know how this works.


To understand propaganda, you must go back to ancient Greece [Crete] and the impact of the play Antigone.  Then look at Nazi occupied France and the impact of the restaging of the play Antigone.  The former, was a moral lesson.  However, to stage the play in Nazi occupied France, it had to pass the Nazi censors. 

The Nazi censors read it and said,  "Good. This will teach the people what happens to those who defy authority." 

The French people read it and said, "If this young girl can risk her life, and indeed, lose her life to do what is morally right, that we can risk our lives, give up our lives to resist the occupation. 

Same speech. Different audience.  Different interpretation.

It wasn't the Alt Right that got Trump elected.  It was the Alt Wrong. 

The media failed to do "the leg work". 

The media
Made assumptions, 
Sought data to support their assumptions, and
Validated and reported their theories as news. 
That is not science. That is not reporting. That is not news.  Ideology has nothing to do with it.  Misogyny had nothing to do with it.  Failure to listen had much to do with it. 



FAILURE TO LISTEN: FAILURE TO LEARN


When I was young we learned:

"We may not agree with what they have to say, but they have the right to say it."

These days we teach:

"They may not agree with what we have to say, but we have the right to say it."


We've all heard,  "Your way is not the only way of doing it, you know.  You should try it my way."

Did you ever hear, "My way isn't the only way of doing it, you know.  We should try it your way."

I will now quote the most eloquent of all Presidential Orators....Lyndon B. Johnson, who said,
"I ain't never learned nothing talking."

Then?  He's right.  We should stop talking and listen to them and learn
Now?   He's right.  You should stop talking and listen to us and learn



JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS

Two factors come into play.  The first is the advantage I had in school.

One of the standardized tests we took had the following instructions.

Read the following paragraph, then answer the questions that follow.

The first question was, "In the above paragraph, what is the main point the author is trying to make?"

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Not, what do you think the author is trying to say.
Not, what do you want the author to say.
Not, what do you think the author should be trying to say.

Focus on what the other person is saying.  Try to understand it.  Proceed from there.


The Media mea culpas fell short.
There is no liberal media.
The only factors are

The Quality of the Press
The Credibility of the Press

Perhaps I should have said, "The perceived quality of the press."  The perceived credibility of the press." 

As Kate Bosworth said to Kevin Spacey in the movie, Beyond the Sea,  "People hear what they see."


As my Dad taught me when I was about 8 years old,

"No one agrees with someone else's opinion.  Only his own opinion expressed by someone else."

I remember that every time someone pats me on the back.



ECONOMICS

I am watching a C-Span special for Black History Month.  I learn that Richard Nixon thought entrepreneurship was essential to help the African American Community break the shackles of poverty. 

I remember George Jefferson:  "Moving on up....to the East Side.....to a Deluxe Apartment in the Sky."

If starting your own business was a bad idea, white people would not be doing it.
If starting your own business was a bad idea, immigrants would not be doing it.
The media repeatedly reports on how many new business startups are being started by immigrants, creating jobs.  The media never reports on how many Black Men are starting businesses and creating jobs.


I constantly hear,

"Creative, innovative, high-tech, entrepreneurs."
"Creative, innovative, high-tech, entrepreneurs."
"Creative, innovative, high-tech, entrepreneurs."
"Creative, innovative, high-tech, entrepreneurs."

To understand the economics, let's compare Archie Bunker and George Jefferson.


Through the magic metaphor, Archie Bunker and George Jefferson work at the American Widget Company.  An opening for foreman comes up.  They both apply for the job.  Bunker gets the job....because he is white.  Nonetheless, Jefferson figures there's no real future for him at the American Widget Company, so he leaves to start Jefferson's Dry Cleaners.  Then he opens a second store.  Soon he has four.  Then six.

Meanwhile, back at The Widget Company,  Bunker gets another promotion.  Now, instead of foreman, he becomes Manager,  This is a suit and tie job.  To look good on the job, he takes his clothes to Jefferson's Dry Cleaners. 

Bunker clearly gets a bigger paycheck.  Bunker gets a bigger piece of the pie.  But when Bunker cashes his check he goes to Jefferson's Dry Cleaners to pick up his dry-cleaning.  He takes part of his paycheck, a piece of his bigger piece of the pie, to pay his dry-cleaning bill.

Jefferson pays himself a salary.  But at the end of the day, he also shows a profit. 

Bunker gets a paycheck
Jefferson gets a paycheck and a profit.

Why?

Because, while Bunker gets a bigger piece of the pie, Jefferson owns a piece of the bakery that bakes the pies.

Bunker?      A paycheck
Jefferson?  A paycheck and a profit.


If starting your own business was a bad idea, white people would not be doing it.
If starting your own business was a bad idea, immigrants would not be doing it.


If the Democrats really want to reclaim one or both houses of Congress, if the Democrats want to reclaim the Oval Office, they must address real concerns with pursuit of substantive gains, not symbolic gestures.  And there must be deliverables and measurables.


Recently a New York Times article addressed the North East Train Corridor problems.

Remember the $800 Billion economic stimulus programme?  Remember the laughter?
The shovel ready projects weren't as shovel ready as we thought." Ha ha ha ha ha.

Remember tax hikes on the Billionaires and Billionaires?

Remember what I said earlier?  In the above paragraph.....

The Democrats controlled the House.
The Democrats controlled the Senate
The Democrats controlled the Oval Office.

The Democrats passed the ACA over the opposition of the Republicans.

Main Point?  The Republicans had no power to stop them

The Democrats passed the $800 Billion economic stimulus package over Republican opposition.

Main Point?  The Republicans had no power to stop them

The tax hike on Billionaires and Billionaires?  Nothing.
The Democrats can't blame the Republicans because....The Republicans had no power to stop them.

In any event, it is not the redistribution of wealth that is the issue.  It is the redistribution of the money.

Wealth is what you have.
Money is what you make.

I have historical support.

Henry Ford did not redistribute his wealth.  He gave his employees raises.  He redistributed the money made by the Ford Motor Car Company.

The Labor Movement?   Wage increases did not redistributed the wealth of the owners.  Wage increases redistribute the money earned by the company. 


THE 93% DELUSION. 


A year or so ago, the Economist Robert Reich wrote an article about the 93% tax rate back in the "Golden Days" of America.  The Eisenhower years.

The plausible economist forgets:

When the tax rate was 93%  A Black man earned 50% of a White man's wage.

When the tax rate was 93%  Women were "barefoot and pregnant."

When the tax rate was 93%  Mexicans and Filipinos picked lettuce and grapes for pennies a day.

When the tax rate was 93%  There was no EPA and factories were polluting the air and water.

When the tax rate was 93%  The European economy was in shambles. We were rebuilding Europe.

The well-being described by The Plausible Economist is attributed to the 93% tax rate?  Baloney.

The truth that Reich is describing is a

Racist America
Sexist America
Xenophobic America
Polluted America
Imperialist America.

The 93% taxe rate benefited only one group.  Everyone else was miserable.  The 93% tax rate is a scam. 

President Kennedy, speaking at The Economics Club in October 1962, announced that [while counter-intuitive] cutting taxes increases revenues.  But the taxes were not cut to 73% or 53%  but cut to about 33%.  Overkill to be sure.  But I digress.

The people are beginning to perceive that The Democrats don't want to tax the rich. They want to blame it on the Republicans.



The Democrats and the Republicans have opposite approaches to solving the same problems.  And, being Congress, it is not ironic that they are both wrong.

In plain speak:  You can neither cut your way nor tax your way to prosperity.  The EuroCrisis proves the former, the collapse of the Soviet Union proves the latter.

Hilary coulda won.

Hillary woulda won.

The way was to

Concede the existence of Newton's 3rd Law of Physics.
Analyse why it happens.
Focus on the opponents platform
Select what you can co-opt, incorporate into your own platform: (Market penetration.  Increase Market Share. Revenue (vote) enhancement.)
Fish where there are fish.

Don't trash or vilify, or disparage, or demean angry voters.  (Remember Nancy Pelosi's remarks about the "astroturf" movement.

Address the concerns of angry voters with a bulleted list of how you will fix the problems that make them angry.  In this case.  JOBS.

Einstein said,

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

He also said,  "You don't measure the intelligence of a fish by its ability to climb a tree."

Slim Said.  "If you want someone to climb a tree, hire a cat."


Best of luck

Sincerest regards,

Slim 

P.S.  If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Google Pixelbook & to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the Thank you note.


Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072

 

Copyright (c) 2017  Bob Asken
All rights reserved.

Merritt, Galbraith, and Stiglitz

I read the reviews in The New York Times Book Review.

I read the reviews of the new books by Giles Merritt, James K. Galbraith, and Joseph Stiglitz.  I read with rapt attention. This, because I've been writing articles about the EuroCrisis for the past 6 years.

Of course, The Drs. Merritt, Galbraith, and Stiglitz don't need me to explain the EuroCrisis to them.  And I don't need them to explain the EuroCrisis to me.

"Everybody knows what everybody knows."  ~Slim Fairview.  

The first of "The Quotations of Slim Fairview (c) 2016

When there is a crisis, or a disaster, as with the European Economy, it is a sad indictment of Economics that Economists will tell us what happened and why rather than tell us what will happen and what to do about it.

I am in good company.  

Chancellor Merkel has been a strict adherent to austerity.  On the other hand, President Obama has been an advocate of Economic Stimulus.  Now, to insure that I do not sound too Keynesian, let me express it in Republican Terms.  "You have to spend money to make money."

Ken Rogoff, the purported architect of austerity expended some energy making the Network rounds.  He appeared on CNBC, on CNN, and on BBC--World News America.  Each time he said the same thing.

"Even if we go back to 2010...."

Can we go back to 2010?  No? What else have you got?

"Even if we were to wipe out Greece's entire debt...."

Can we wipe out Greece's entire debt?  No? What else have you got?

When Fareed Zakaria asked Dr. Rogoff, point blank, about the success of President Obama's economic stimulus programme, Dr. Rogoff made a sarcastic allusion to the economic travails of Puerto Rico and returned to Europe.  "Even if we were to wipe out Greece's entire debt...."

Now, there is Urban Legend suggesting that some youngsters majoring in Economics tried running Dr. Rogoff's numbers through the computer and failed to duplicate his results.  The story died with no resolution, or conclusion.  It is still urban legend.  

Back to the EuroCrisis and Slim Fairview's Empirical Method of Analysis.

Did we try austerity?

Yes.

Did the European economy get more high, good, better?

No.

Did the European economy get more low, bad, worse?

Yes.

Conclusion?

Abandon austerity: embrace economic stimulus.

We all know what Einstein said.  "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Slim Fairview builds on that.  "By extension, the argument can be made that sanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same results."  Meaning.  We had economic stimulus.  We had good results.  Europe embraces economic stimulus, Europe has good results.

Some may cite slowing global growth as part of the cause of Europe's problems.  Others may say that Europe's economic travails have been part of the cause of slowing global growth.

Heart Warming Moments.

When the reviewer, Paul Hockenos, imputed the following to the author, James K. Galbraith:

"The EU erred egregiously in making draconian austerity policies the price of Greece's rescue...."  And concluded the paragraph, "Greece's withdrawal from the Eurozone, he suggests, would have been preferable."  I wrote, the problem is not that Europe can't afford Greece.  The problem is that Europe can't afford Germany.

The latter, a sentiment expressed to Steve Liesman on Squawkbox by a guest as Mr. Liesman indicated with..."So in other words, what you're saying is Europe can't afford Germany."

The review by Roger Lowenstein of The Euro, the book by Nobel Laureate Dr. Joseph Stiglitz was more dense.  Just as Mr. Lowenstein says of the book.  (imagine an economic text written by Michael Moore.)  I would have written, imagine an economic text written by Marie-Claire Blais.  

Mr. Lowenstein "indicts" Dr. Stiglitz for descending to slurs evoking the Nazi era; but, concludes the paragraph with, "The fact is, German industry is more productive."

I reject the Nazi slurs.  That the German economy benefited from deficit spending elsewhere in Europe has been generously expressed. However,  I would have written, Merkel fed the German economic machine at the expense of the Satellite Nations in southern Europe.

The example "US v. EuroUnion" vis-a-vis their respective structures is something I expressed--perhaps not eloquently--several years ago in an interview with solotablet.it   

As far as the democratisation of the EuroUnion, I would suggest that The European Commission exists for one reason and one reason only.  To justify the existence of The European Commission.

MIGRANTS are NOT the problem.  Merkel is the problem.  However, I called that in 2013 when I wrote:

Merkel's Big Lies?  Ten tactics used in an Economic Putsch.  Or, Merkel's Economic Theatre of Operation.

"Austerity only makes it sound bad.  I just wanted to balance the budget."

"Don't you think I've seen the posters of me dressed as a Nazi?  Poor me. I'm the victim here."

And, I did forecast the unrest and the rise of the right.

I posted  Greek Proposal.  Tsipras folded.  Merkel issued a fait-accompli, and Tsipras returned to Greece with his tail between his legs.  

I also wrote  This is Brexit.

"But don't bother listening to me. Everyone always doesn't listen to me." ~Slim Fairview

The last quotation from "The Quotations of Slim Fairview (c) 2016

Warmest regards,

Slim

P.S.  If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book & to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the Thank you note.

Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072

Copyright (c) 2016  Bob Asken

All rights reserved.