Europe? Take the Next Right

 

As this country, Europe, and Elsewhere are shifting to the right, we hear much discussion.  A great deal of information.  But little understanding.

Before we start, let's understand Newton's First Law of Physics:  The pendulum swings both ways.

Now, let's start here:

Lenin became leader of Russia by appealing to the downtrodden people of Russia.

Hitler, the downtrodden people of Germany.

Robespierre, the downtrodden people of France.

How did it work out for the people of Russia, Germany, and France?  Not good!.

But one element is common to all three. It is very unlikely that Lenin, HItler, and Robespierre, gained power by citing facts and figures. By providing statistics and analysis.

There is little evidence that the proletariat or the serfs were able read and write.  Or do the math.

Each man appealed to emotion.

"Workers of the world unite. You have nothing to lose but your chains."

Hitler employed the time-tested strategy of scapegoating other people.  

Robespierre employed class warfare.

No one knows when the Russian people figured out: when everyone owns everything no one owns anything.

The Germans found themselves knee deep in war when it was too late to do anything about it.

The French figured it out when they were being led to the Guillotine. And Robespierre? "Hoisted with his own petard".

And those who distinguish between Lenin and HItler are merely quibbling.  I believe the word is specious.

In my article on the passing of the Queen, I focused on succession.  Whether we are discussing The Queen, the CEO, or the Manager on the loading dock, whenever there is a change in leadership, there will be a loosening of the ties that bind.  The loyalties are broken.  New alliances are created.  And even though the Commonwealth is a built in Economic Union, the nations are beginning to move out of the orbit.

When Merkel retired, obedience to the Troika began to dissolve. This, mind you, that there was connection among the ranks.  

But why? Because people believe what they want to believe.

Chamberlain told the Brits, Mr. Hitler has assured me he is not planning to go to war.

Churchill said, The Nazis are planning to go to war.

Chamberlain told the Brits what they wanted to hear.  Churchill told the Brits what they needed to hear.  And the rest, as they say, is history.

"You can't stop the arrival of history.  You can only delay it.  History is coming.  However, the longer you can delay the arrival of history, the better your chances of survival."  Slim Fairview

However, the future?

"That you cannot predict the future is not the proper rebuff to the person who says, get off the tracks there's a train coming."  ~Slim Fairview

Still, societies have an innate mechanism that causes them to move in response or reaction to coming changes before the people know they are coming.

My takeaway from Reflections of a Spawn in Hell by Borisz de Balla is this:  The Eastern Europeans did not embrace the Nazis because they hated the Jews.  They embraced the Nazis because they were terrified of The Soviet Union.  And today, the people of Eastern Europe seem not to want to return to the days of Soviet Military Occupation.

In Italy?  People have forgotten the demise of Benito Mussolini.  The how. The why.

I've pointed out that Merkel had a 1-pronged approach to solving the European Economic Crisis.  Austerity.  And that a 1-pronged approach is not a solution. It is a weapon.  

Soon, the 1-pronged approach became a 2-pronged approach.  Austerity + Open Immigration.  This served to further crush the economies of Southern Europe while doing nothing for the migrants save to leave them in camps with nowhere to go, nothing to do, and not even a place to sit down let alone lie down to sleep.

I stated, Merkel is not a Nazi.  Merkel grew up in East Germany.  Merkel speaks Russian, Merkel ran the German economy by feeding the German Economic Machine at the expense of satellite nations in Southern Europe. How did it work out for them?  Not good.

Now Merkel is gone.  Now, the pendulum is swinging back.

And we continue to forget, each succeeding generation does not always embrace the values, the paradigms, the algorithms of previous generations.

Santayana said, Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

I've said, Those who never learned history are doomed--period!

However, there is more: "Those who remember history are able to repeat it."

In addition to Europe, let's shed a bit of light on China.  China will succeed because China will do as we did and not as we say.

Manifest destiny -> Belt and Road

Trans-Continental Railroad -> HIgh speed railroad

Monroe Doctrine -> South China Sea

Hoover Dam -> Three Rivers Dam

What the Soviet Union lacked that China implemented successfully was The Free Market Paradigm.  

When China elevated 500 million people from poverty to the middle class, China:

Created a consumer class

Created an investor class

Created a vested interest in the success of Beijing's policies

Created cohesion among the Chinese people.

Russian did not count on a solidarity of its former satellite states.  And China's reticence on the invasion of Ukraine is one indicator of China's perceptions of future events.

The pendulum swings both ways; but,

"There are no unintended consequences. Only unwanted consequences." 

~ Slim Fairview

Europe will shift to the right.

America will shift to the right.

Facts and figures will not supercede the appeal to emotion.

Best wishes,

Slim.

Box 33

Pen Argyl, PA 18072

Etats-Unis

The Quotations of Slim Fairview

Copyright © 2022 Robert Asken

All rights reserved

EU Taxes Patience

Congratulations:  

The EU ruling on Apple’s Taxes and Ireland is not about Apple or taxes or Ireland.

• The EU, first of all,  is shedding light the suffering of a nation that capitulated to the fait-accompli issued by the Eurocrats.  That nation is Greece.

• The EU has just validated Brexit.

• The EU has justified those in Ireland who would follow Britain's lead if there was good cause and if they see a pathway to a better future.

• The EU has just campaigned for an Italian referendum to leave the EuroUnion--and supported same.

And the issue goes beyond the EU Ruling on Ireland and Apple and Taxes.

In my article, "This is Brexit", I suggested the formation of The Exit Nations.

Britain

Greece

Italy  

Portugal

Spain.  

I can now add Ireland.

Over the past six years, I have repeatedly warned that the EuroCrats’ pursuit of Austerity would lead to disaster and explained the inherent flaws in the plan.

I forecast the migrant crisis in Merkel's Big Lies?  In lies number six and seven, I specified the scapegoating and vilification of migrants and the reactionary  rise of the right. The strategies were intended to destabilise the target nation in Merkel's Economic Putsch.

My statement on Brexit was simple:  

If Merkel knows that Britain can't leave the EuroUnion, then Britain can't negotiate reforms.  

Remember, Cameron said repeatedly that he wanted Britain to remain in a reformed EuroUnion.  

He would have had a better chance of success if he'd flown to Arizona, USA to look for the Lost Dutchman Mine.  

I tweeted to Cameron, "Be Britain's next Wellington, not Britain's next Tsipras.

Britain voted to leave and Cameron showed an astounding lack of leadership by resigning.  Witness Greece.  The Greek people voted OXI.  Tsipras met with the EuroCrats, Merkel issued a fait-accompli, Tsipras folded and returned to Greece with his tail between his legs.

Years ago I said, "The problem is not that Europe can't afford Greece. The problem is Europe can't afford Germany."  And, that Greece should leave the EuroUnion.  And I spelled it out.  No one listened.  My views were validated in the recent book reviews of books by Merritt, Galbraith, & Stiglitz in the New York Times Book Review and in a discussion Steve Liesman had with a guest on Squawk Box on CNBC.  

(There is no proof that had I not been distracted by my cat, Zoe--who wanted her tummy rubbed--I would have heard what the guest had said.)

Then we have the paper written by Dr. Ken Rogoff, the purported architect of austerity.  I recently read the article about the youngster majoring in economics who tried running Dr. Rogoff's numbers through the computer and failed to duplicate Rogoff's results.   I was validated, but slow to catch a major detail.

Did Dr. Rogoff's paper go through Peer Review?  There are some who may believe:

• If the paper did not receive peer review, the paper was worthless.

• If the paper did receive peer review, the peer review was worthless.

Nonetheless, Austerity was a failure.  And the EuroCrats still clutch retentively to Austerity like a two-year old with his hands down his nappy fondling his own bowel movement..

In This is Brexit, the expedited manœuvre propounded to save the EuroUnion is this simple:

The leaders of the Exit Nations: Britain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, & now Ireland:

Meet

Read through "the rules"

Use a blue pencil to strike out any provision that encroaches on domestic issues and/or national sovereignty

Write up the ultimatum. Eg:

You have 15 days to agree to the demands.

If you do not agree to the demands in 15 days, we will immediately declare the provisions contained herein to be null & void, not in force, and unenforceable.  We will form our own union.

If you need historic validation, consider the Colonial Rebellion of 1776.  

There was no invoking of Rule 50.  

There was no 2-year exit process.

There was no Meeting of The Empire Nations.  

"Before you can leave the Empire, your exit must be approved unanimously by the colonies in the Empire Union: Canada, Australia, India, Hong Kong....et. al."  

Read:  This is Brexit.

This, of course, is metaphorical.  However, it explains, why you don't talk about it.  Why not?  

I explained the reason in The Unspoken Understanding.

Einstein said, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Slim Fairview said,  "By extension, the argument can be made that the definition of sanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same results.

Meaning?  

Europe has embraced austerity.  

All austerity measures have failed to improve the European economy.

The US embraced economic stimulus.  

The US economy improved.  

The EuroCrats should embrace a successful strategy, not cling to a failed strategy.  

Specially not one based on a paper that has purportedly been repudiated.

The frenzied declamations prior to the Brexit Vote served to affirm the validity of the Brexit vote.  The more hysterical the predictions of disaster grew, the more desperate the EuroCrats appeared.

After the Brexit vote, the face saving arrogance:  "...don't let the door hit you in the bum on the way out." made the EuroCrats look more ridiculous than they did by Britain's rebuff of the Union.

The EuroUnion can be saved. The European Economy can be improved. However, not by adhering to Merkelism: an economic paradigm based on the fear that someone, somewhere, is earning a living.

My next admonition.  

To Prime Minister Matteo Renzi:

"Be Italy's next Garibaldi, not Italy's new Berlusconi."

Before Italy holds a referendum or an election, meet with Britain, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain;  Discuss the reforms; Write them up; and Issue the ultimatum.  

If the EuroCrats refuse to accept them, let the EuroCrats bear the burden of the collapse of the European Economic Union.

Rogoff, Merkel, and China.

Merritt, Galbraith, & Stiglitz

Merkel's Big Lies?

Gordian's EuroKnot

Greek Proposal

Greekenomics. 

Germany Slaps Greece

Antigone Defeats Merkel.

Best of luck.

Warmest regards,

Slim.

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright ©  2016  Bob Asken

All rights reserved.

Merritt, Galbraith, and Stiglitz

I read the reviews in The New York Times Book Review.

I read the reviews of the new books by Giles Merritt, James K. Galbraith, and Joseph Stiglitz.  I read with rapt attention. This, because I've been writing articles about the EuroCrisis for the past 6 years.

Of course, The Drs. Merritt, Galbraith, and Stiglitz don't need me to explain the EuroCrisis to them.  And I don't need them to explain the EuroCrisis to me.

"Everybody knows what everybody knows."  ~Slim Fairview.  

The first of "The Quotations of Slim Fairview (c) 2016

When there is a crisis, or a disaster, as with the European Economy, it is a sad indictment of Economics that Economists will tell us what happened and why rather than tell us what will happen and what to do about it.

I am in good company.  

Chancellor Merkel has been a strict adherent to austerity.  On the other hand, President Obama has been an advocate of Economic Stimulus.  Now, to insure that I do not sound too Keynesian, let me express it in Republican Terms.  "You have to spend money to make money."

Ken Rogoff, the purported architect of austerity expended some energy making the Network rounds.  He appeared on CNBC, on CNN, and on BBC--World News America.  Each time he said the same thing.

"Even if we go back to 2010...."

Can we go back to 2010?  No? What else have you got?

"Even if we were to wipe out Greece's entire debt...."

Can we wipe out Greece's entire debt?  No? What else have you got?

When Fareed Zakaria asked Dr. Rogoff, point blank, about the success of President Obama's economic stimulus programme, Dr. Rogoff made a sarcastic allusion to the economic travails of Puerto Rico and returned to Europe.  "Even if we were to wipe out Greece's entire debt...."

Now, there is Urban Legend suggesting that some youngsters majoring in Economics tried running Dr. Rogoff's numbers through the computer and failed to duplicate his results.  The story died with no resolution, or conclusion.  It is still urban legend.  

Back to the EuroCrisis and Slim Fairview's Empirical Method of Analysis.

Did we try austerity?

Yes.

Did the European economy get more high, good, better?

No.

Did the European economy get more low, bad, worse?

Yes.

Conclusion?

Abandon austerity: embrace economic stimulus.

We all know what Einstein said.  "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Slim Fairview builds on that.  "By extension, the argument can be made that sanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same results."  Meaning.  We had economic stimulus.  We had good results.  Europe embraces economic stimulus, Europe has good results.

Some may cite slowing global growth as part of the cause of Europe's problems.  Others may say that Europe's economic travails have been part of the cause of slowing global growth.

Heart Warming Moments.

When the reviewer, Paul Hockenos, imputed the following to the author, James K. Galbraith:

"The EU erred egregiously in making draconian austerity policies the price of Greece's rescue...."  And concluded the paragraph, "Greece's withdrawal from the Eurozone, he suggests, would have been preferable."  I wrote, the problem is not that Europe can't afford Greece.  The problem is that Europe can't afford Germany.

The latter, a sentiment expressed to Steve Liesman on Squawkbox by a guest as Mr. Liesman indicated with..."So in other words, what you're saying is Europe can't afford Germany."

The review by Roger Lowenstein of The Euro, the book by Nobel Laureate Dr. Joseph Stiglitz was more dense.  Just as Mr. Lowenstein says of the book.  (imagine an economic text written by Michael Moore.)  I would have written, imagine an economic text written by Marie-Claire Blais.  

Mr. Lowenstein "indicts" Dr. Stiglitz for descending to slurs evoking the Nazi era; but, concludes the paragraph with, "The fact is, German industry is more productive."

I reject the Nazi slurs.  That the German economy benefited from deficit spending elsewhere in Europe has been generously expressed. However,  I would have written, Merkel fed the German economic machine at the expense of the Satellite Nations in southern Europe.

The example "US v. EuroUnion" vis-a-vis their respective structures is something I expressed--perhaps not eloquently--several years ago in an interview with solotablet.it   

As far as the democratisation of the EuroUnion, I would suggest that The European Commission exists for one reason and one reason only.  To justify the existence of The European Commission.

MIGRANTS are NOT the problem.  Merkel is the problem.  However, I called that in 2013 when I wrote:

Merkel's Big Lies?  Ten tactics used in an Economic Putsch.  Or, Merkel's Economic Theatre of Operation.

"Austerity only makes it sound bad.  I just wanted to balance the budget."

"Don't you think I've seen the posters of me dressed as a Nazi?  Poor me. I'm the victim here."

And, I did forecast the unrest and the rise of the right.

I posted  Greek Proposal.  Tsipras folded.  Merkel issued a fait-accompli, and Tsipras returned to Greece with his tail between his legs.  

I also wrote  This is Brexit.

"But don't bother listening to me. Everyone always doesn't listen to me." ~Slim Fairview

The last quotation from "The Quotations of Slim Fairview (c) 2016

Warmest regards,

Slim

P.S.  If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book & to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the Thank you note.

Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072

Copyright (c) 2016  Bob Asken

All rights reserved.

GreekEnomics

Today, President Obama, addressing the press at the G-7 meeting, invoked the mantra I’ve propounded for almost five years. Capital Investment.

How long have the EuroCrats been attempting to solve the Greek Economic Crisis?

Too Long.  The same applies to the EuroCrisis.

By now we should be able to invoke Slim Fairview’s Empirical Method of Analysis.

Have we tried austerity?

Yes.

Have things gotten better?

No.

Have things gotten worse?

Yes.

Conclusion?

Don’t do that.

The first rule of holes: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

Reform is the smallest part of the solution to the Greek Economic Crisis.  We need, as I’ve said repeatedly, Capital Investment + Economic Development + Growth.

ONE PROPOSAL:

What is one thing Greece has been known for?  Shipping. Did anyone say Onassis?

If the EuroCrats don’t embrace this idea, the Chinese will.  Case in point.  When I heard that Air Travel will double in the next 20 years, I posed the question, does that mean we will need to double the number of airports, or double the number of planes?  What happened?  Boeing increased the size of the planes.

China is building a Canal in Nicaragua. Why? To accommodate the Super Ships. Why? To ship from Western Africa, through the Nicaragua canal to China and the rest of Asia.

Remember what I said in my article “Energy Independence? (Then What?)”  I said, when we no longer need oil from Saudi Arabia, then Saudi Arabia will need to find a new customer. (China) If China is the new customer, China is also the new friend.  And oil can move on supertankers through the Nicaragua canal to China and the rest of Asia.

It is impossible to exaggerate the importance of shipping and, by extension, the importance of ships.  Ship building in Greece, with Chinese Capital Investment, can meet that demand.  This is not strategic planning.  This is marketing.

Marketing: Find a need and fill it.

The EuroUnion has a narrow window of opportunity.  The EuroCrats must embrace Capital Investment and Economic Development as crucial to solving the Greek economic crisis.  In addition, the rest of the world must work with China to complete the building of the Nicaragua Canal.  This is to benefit the Global Economy.

Warmest regards,

Slim


slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2015 Bob Asken 
All rights reserved.

Additional reading:


Merkel's Big Lies 

Merkel and the Salesman

Merkel's Last Stand
 
EuroCracy, with Apologies to Swift

Beware! The Chancellor is Consolidating Power


Merkel and Charybdis

Greek/Roman

Merkel's Big Lies

The First Rule of Holes.

When you find yourself in a hole--Stop Digging!

The EuroCrisis has lasted too long.

The EuroCrisis has lasted long enough. And, given the path of the trajectory, will continue.

The EuroCrisis began with a small problem.  Too much spending and too little revenue combined with a the slowing of the global economy.

The proposed solution:  institute a policy of austerity.

The actual solution:  Too much austerity.

The result: The European Economic Crisis.

How did this happen? 

 

This happened as the result of a trap carefully laid.  A strategy implemented and in progress.

• You have debt
• We lend you money
• You cut spending

I explained this deceit in an article written almost two years ago.


How did Europe arrive at its current state of Economic Crisis?



Merkel's 10 Big Lies 



Big Lie # 1:  Blame Greece 

I wrote an article about the following.  The "Commission" recommended lending Greece  €110 Billion.  This loan was made on the basis of a false statement:  The forecast that the Greek economy would grow by 2% and Greece could repay the loan.

When the Greek economy did not grow by 2% because there was no basis for growth, the Commission recommended sanctions to punish Greece.  Why? to conceal the fact that the loan was made on the basis of a baseless forecast in order to impose more severe austerity on the Greek people. Economic conditions declined.  Merkel's Trojan Plan--Destroy Greece.

Big Lie # 2:  The Firewall 

In my article, Firewall or Farce, I stated that the Firewall will not protect Spain.  The Firewall did not protect Spain.

A Truth

You cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes  and call it a solution.  The intractable and extremest adherence to the one-pronged (and one-pronged only) position of Austerity has driven he European Economy down and the Europeans into penury.

Big Lie # 3:  The Ponzi Scheme

With the European Economy declining, Merkel sent Madame Lagarde "begging for coppers".  The plan was to seek contributions from The Middle East, China, Brazil, The BRIC nations as a whole, in an attempt to induce the next group of contributors to help to pay the debt owed to the previous group of contributors.

Big Lie # 4:  Deceptive Denials

Merkel's position (and properly so) was that Europe should not expect German taxpayers to bail out poor nations indefinitely.  The deception? No one expected Germany taxpayers to bail out poor nations indefinitely.  No one wanted German taxpayers to bail out poor nations indefinitely.  Merkel's claim made it appear to be true.

Big Lie # 5:  Bailout: Carrots and Sticks

• You cannot pay your bills
• The Chancellor lends you money
• You have responsibilities
• You must cut spending
• You cut spending
• Your economy declines
• You can't repay the loan
• The Chancellor makes another loan
• The Chancellor imposes harsher cuts
• The Economy declines

 This leads to Big Lies 6 and 7

Big Lie # 6:  Incite Then Blame the People

Big Lie Number 5 creates large numbers of unemployed enduring increasingly harsh conditions.  The people have no jobs, no money, no food.  They take to the streets to protest.  The protests lead to unrest.  The protests must be quelled by Government use of force: The Police.  The use of force leads to riots.  The riots must be quelled by Troops.

Big Lie # 7.  Blame Other People

The rise of the poor and hungry leads to the rise of the opposition--The Extreme Right.  The Right cannot blame their fellow countrymen, so they blame immigrants and begin fomenting xenophobia. This creates more hostilities, more police, more riots, more troops.

Big Lie # 8:  Claim Compassion and Nobility

Merkel claims that Austerity only makes it sound Evil.  That her intentions were merely to balance the budgets.  Merkel claims to have been misunderstood in her motives.  Merkel claims to have only the most noble of intentions.  Remember,  "Let them eat cake"?  Remember what happened next?

Big Lie # 9:  Claim to be a Victim

Merkel whines:  "I've seen the posters of me dressed as a NAZI.  Poor me. I am a victim.  Try hard to understand my position."

To: The the Leaders of Europe.

As European leaders, you are presumed to be literate and well read.  Not doubt you have read Jonathan Swift and his essay, A Modest Proposal.  Swift wrote satire.  If Europe had a Food Crisis and not an Economic Crisis, Merkel's Austerity Plan would be, "Let the children starve and you will have plenty of food."  If you doubt me, look at the 50% youth unemployment.  This destruction is not limited to the economy.  This destruction is not limited to your children.  It will extend to your grandchildren.

By Definition:  

European Leaders who follow Merkel are not leaders, they are followers.

How can you,  in good conscience, destroy the lives of  your children and grandchildren?

Analysis

• Have you followed Merkel's Lead?
• Yes!
• Have conditions improved?
• No!
• Have conditions become much worse?
• Yes!
• Conclusion?
• Do not follow Merkel's Lead! 

Big Lie # 10  Austerity is Austerity

A Bailout, a loan, is spending with borrowed money. A bond is a loan. A bailout is a loan, a bailout is borrowed money.  Paying bills with borrowed money is increased spending. Stop selling bonds, start selling stocks.

I have long since projected that China will spearhead a group of "Pledge Nations" that will create a Global Sovereign Investment Fund that will infuse money into the Economy of Europe, into the hands of People, not into the hands of bankers to improve the financial position of big lenders and their big investors.

This is not about politics.  This is not about economics.  This is about process management. That and the 10 Big Lies that have perpetuated the destruction of lives through the destruction of the European Economy.

Now, now, is the time to Stop Digging!  With each passing day, European Leaders are digging a deeper and deeper hole.

Sincerest Regards,

Slim

Slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2013 Slim Fairview

All Rights Reserved

The Side Street Journal is an unfunded, unsupported, non-profit web log owned and written by Slim Fairview.  I am solely responsible for the conclusions drawn from my analysis of the global economy as reported.