Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts

Monday, October 3, 2022

Europe? Take the Next Right

 

As this country, Europe, and Elsewhere are shifting to the right, we hear much discussion.  A great deal of information.  But little understanding.


Before we start, let's understand Newton's First Law of Physics:  The pendulum swings both ways.


Now, let's start here:


Lenin became leader of Russia by appealing to the downtrodden people of Russia.


Hitler, the downtrodden people of Germany.


Robespierre, the downtrodden people of France.


How did it work out for the people of Russia, Germany, and France?  Not good!.


But one element is common to all three. It is very unlikely that Lenin, HItler, and Robespierre, gained power by citing facts and figures. By providing statistics and analysis.


There is little evidence that the proletariat or the serfs were able read and write.  Or do the math.


Each man appealed to emotion.


"Workers of the world unite. You have nothing to lose but your chains."


Hitler employed the time-tested strategy of scapegoating other people.  


Robespierre employed class warfare.


No one knows when the Russian people figured out: when everyone owns everything no one owns anything.


The Germans found themselves knee deep in war when it was too late to do anything about it.


The French figured it out when they were being led to the Guillotine. And Robespierre? "Hoisted with his own petard".


And those who distinguish between Lenin and HItler are merely quibbling.  I believe the word is specious.


In my article on the passing of the Queen, I focused on succession.  Whether we are discussing The Queen, the CEO, or the Manager on the loading dock, whenever there is a change in leadership, there will be a loosening of the ties that bind.  The loyalties are broken.  New alliances are created.  And even though the Commonwealth is a built in Economic Union, the nations are beginning to move out of the orbit.


When Merkel retired, obedience to the Troika began to dissolve. This, mind you, that there was connection among the ranks.  


But why? Because people believe what they want to believe.


Chamberlain told the Brits, Mr. Hitler has assured me he is not planning to go to war.


Churchill said, The Nazis are planning to go to war.


Chamberlain told the Brits what they wanted to hear.  Churchill told the Brits what they needed to hear.  And the rest, as they say, is history.


"You can't stop the arrival of history.  You can only delay it.  History is coming.  However, the longer you can delay the arrival of history, the better your chances of survival."  Slim Fairview


However, the future?


"That you cannot predict the future is not the proper rebuff to the person who says, get off the tracks there's a train coming."  ~Slim Fairview


Still, societies have an innate mechanism that causes them to move in response or reaction to coming changes before the people know they are coming.


My takeaway from Reflections of a Spawn in Hell by Borisz de Balla is this:  The Eastern Europeans did not embrace the Nazis because they hated the Jews.  They embraced the Nazis because they were terrified of The Soviet Union.  And today, the people of Eastern Europe seem not to want to return to the days of Soviet Military Occupation.


In Italy?  People have forgotten the demise of Benito Mussolini.  The how. The why.


I've pointed out that Merkel had a 1-pronged approach to solving the European Economic Crisis.  Austerity.  And that a 1-pronged approach is not a solution. It is a weapon.  


Soon, the 1-pronged approach became a 2-pronged approach.  Austerity + Open Immigration.  This served to further crush the economies of Southern Europe while doing nothing for the migrants save to leave them in camps with nowhere to go, nothing to do, and not even a place to sit down let alone lie down to sleep.


I stated, Merkel is not a Nazi.  Merkel grew up in East Germany.  Merkel speaks Russian, Merkel ran the German economy by feeding the German Economic Machine at the expense of satellite nations in Southern Europe. How did it work out for them?  Not good.


Now Merkel is gone.  Now, the pendulum is swinging back.


And we continue to forget, each succeeding generation does not always embrace the values, the paradigms, the algorithms of previous generations.


Santayana said, Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.


I've said, Those who never learned history are doomed--period!


However, there is more: "Those who remember history are able to repeat it."


In addition to Europe, let's shed a bit of light on China.  China will succeed because China will do as we did and not as we say.


Manifest destiny -> Belt and Road

Trans-Continental Railroad -> HIgh speed railroad

Monroe Doctrine -> South China Sea

Hoover Dam -> Three Rivers Dam


What the Soviet Union lacked that China implemented successfully was The Free Market Paradigm.  


When China elevated 500 million people from poverty to the middle class, China:

Created a consumer class

Created an investor class

Created a vested interest in the success of Beijing's policies

Created cohesion among the Chinese people.


Russian did not count on a solidarity of its former satellite states.  And China's reticence on the invasion of Ukraine is one indicator of China's perceptions of future events.


The pendulum swings both ways; but,

"There are no unintended consequences. Only unwanted consequences." 

~ Slim Fairview


Europe will shift to the right.

America will shift to the right.

Facts and figures will not supercede the appeal to emotion.


Best wishes,


Slim.

Box 33

Pen Argyl, PA 18072

Etats-Unis


The Quotations of Slim Fairview

Copyright © 2022 Robert Asken

All rights reserved


Wednesday, March 30, 2022

The War by Metaphor

 

For 12 years, my blog articles have been about global  political
and economic events. The only skill I admit to is the ability to
speak in metaphors.

This is what's happening.
Here is the metaphor.

First: put yourself in the other person's shoes.

You rob a bank, wound a teller, make off with $100,000.
The #police & the #fbi have identified you. You have a record.

You instruct your Lawyer & your Agent to release the following
statement.

"Our client wants to negotiate a deal.
He will return half the money ($50,0000) & write the teller a
letter of apology if the bank agrees to let him keep half the
money & prosecutors agree not to prosecute. And he will
stop robbing banks."

The Banks Managers refuse. The Prosecutors refuse. Your
Lawyer issues another statement.

The Banks are being selfish and greedy. The prosecutors
show depraved indifference to pubic safety. My client has
not choice but to continue robbing banks. Some may be
injured. Some may be killed. It's all their fault. My client tried.

Would you accept that?

Bonus: Mr. Hitler offers to end WW II if the allies agree to allow:
Germany to Annex Western Europe &
Stalin to Annex Eastern Europe.

Regards,

Slim

Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072
Etats-Unis


Copyright © 2022 Robert Asken
All rights reserved

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Obama's Win!



Obama’s Win

Can you see it now—the President’s handling of foreign affairs?

Let’s start with President Obama’s handling of Libya.  

Some of the criticism was unfounded. The President (as with many of his predecessors) was criticised for playing the world’s policeman and insisting that he allow allies to shoulder some of the burden.  Subsequent to which, in Slim Fairview style, he says, “Okay.” And proceeds to allow our NATO Allies should some of the burden.

The Critics, criticise the President for leading from behind.


Russia

I’ve stated before, “The military option is no longer viable.”  I also stated, “The economic zero-sum game isn’t going to work anymore.”  And, “Putin is engaged in an Economic Theatre of Operation.”


President Obama


In short, The President knows, never take a sucker bet.

To understand this, we must look to the European Economic Crisis, the dissolution of the southern country’s economies, and The Chancellor’s efforts to draw The Ukraine and other Eastern Bloc nations into the EuroUnion. 

Let’s be honest.  Deficit spending in Southern Europe fuels the German economy and The Chancellor’s economic war machine.  With the Southern economies virtually desolate, Merkel needs Eastern Europe to fuel the German economy.

Merkel’s strategy is too obvious for words:  Keep the German Economy strong until the global economy turns around, and then declare victory for her strategies and her tenure.

Merkelism: An economic system based on the fear that someone somewhere is earning a living.”


President Obama knows that President Putin is engaged in Economic Warfare. Hence, the U.S. led sanctions against Russia is economic warfare.  Also, The Chancellor and her economic supply lines are cut off.


The President Knows…


  • Restraint:  Never take a sucker bet.
  • Prudence: Never talk into a trap.
  • Patience:  Let your opponent make the first move.


If numbers two and three don’t sound familiar, then watch The Seven Samurai.  Twice.


I also posted, on LinkedIn, ”Economic self-interest will play a role in resolving the many problems currently manifesting themselves in the Middle East.  Economic Self-Interest.  That appears to have come into play.


What might be some of President Obama’s Prognostications?


  • Sanctions against Russia may impede an oil deal with cash-strapped Iran.
  • China can afford to delay a Nat/Gas deal with Russia.
  • Russia’s concerns over The Ukraine may cut off Russian Aid to Syria.
  • Economic Sanctions will diminish the potency of a Euro-Economic recovery.



The President


  • Let our allies participate
  • Refused to be goaded into taking a sucker bet.
  • Refused to be goaded into revealing strategy.
  • Refused to walk into a trap.
  • Displayed the wisdom of letting his opponents make the first move.


There is hope…..

Warmest regards,

Slim



Copyright © 2014   Robert Asken as Slim Fairview
All Rights Reserved.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Putin's Overture in EurAsia Minor

Putin’s Overture in EurasiaAsia Minor

There appears to be many opinions about what is going on in The Crimea. Most of it appears to be wrong, confused, or misdirected.

As this is not about knowledge but rather about understanding, I will use no graphs, pie charts, names of great leaders past, present, or future, and no list if historical dates.  Again, this is about understanding.

“If you want to know something, Google it; If you want to understand something, ask an old person.”

I have but two skills: an analytical mind and the ability to speak in metaphors.  However, if you don’t want to hear it from me, hear it from Einstein. “You can’t solve the problem using the same kind of thinking that caused the problem.”

The article has several parts and does rely on metaphors.  When you’ve finished the article, you will have a better insight into Russia’s actions.


Our Hypocrisy

Respect means different things to different people.  In some countries, people shake hands. In other countries, people bow.

Now, people in the US who believe in treating others with respect simply do not understand the concept.

He does not understand that other people do not want to be treated the way he wants to be treated.  He counters with all people wanting to be treated with respect.  He does not understand that respect means different things to different people.   Case in point:

A pat on the back, a pulled pork sandwich, and a bottle of beer.  “Sit down, put your feet up, and relax.”  That may be okay for me, however:

  • ·         You don’t touch people in Muslim countries.
  • ·         Muslims do not eat pork.
  • ·         Muslims do not drink alcohol.
  • ·         Don’t put your feet up!


First he is rude. Then he gets upset when other people don’t feel respected because he treated other people the way he wants to be treated, and in less obvious situations, he accuses other people of being snobs, elitists, or falls back on the old canard, “Who’s to say what’s right or wrong?”


“Circumstances, if not consequences, will prove who is right and who is wrong; too often when it is too late to benefit from the answer.” The quotations of Slim Fairview.


Now we go further.


The Fallacy of Win-Win Negotiations.

As form follows function (Bauhaus), I am using a metaphor to enlighten. Also, there is an economics lesson thrown in for good measure.

You and your husband both work. You share the household chores. Your husband asks you to do the dinner dishes for a week so he can watch some protracted sports event. You negotiate. You make an offer.

You will do the dinner dishes every night except Thursday if he gives up golf on Saturday to mow the lawn, trim the shrubs, and mulch the garden. As a sweetener, you tell him he does not have to go with you to dinner at your parents’ house on Saturday night.

He counters with what he calls a win-win offer. He will do the dishes on Wednesday, he will do all the yard work, but on Sunday, and he will go with you to your parents’ house for dinner on Saturday—to please you.  Sounds like a fair offer, doesn't it?

If you get caught up in the paradigm too quickly you will agree.  And, you made an agreement and you keep your bargains. Your husband made immediate concessions.  You accept the deal.  Now let’s look at the details, because actually, you lose on every point. Here is why.


  • There is no game on Wednesday night.
  • You want the TV Thursday to watch a programme on Economics
  • Your Dad dislikes your husband, but your husband loves your Mom’s Pot-Roast with gravy and mashed potatoes. 
  • However, the most important aspect is that you wanted the lawn work done on Saturday because you invited the women from the Economics Club at work to an al fresco luncheon ot your house on Sunday.


Now, the Economics Lesson.  Time, place, form utility.


You want to watch the Economics programme on Thursday because that will be the topic of discussion in your Economics Club meeting on Friday.  Time Utility.  The Rerun on Sunday night has no value.

Also, the yard work has time-form utility.  In economics, the yard work is a “product or a service.”  On Saturday, the yard work is very valuable.  On Sunday, the yard work is worthless.  The condition of the yard also has utility.  In its present form, it has no value.  Once cleaned up and made presentable, the yard has form utility
.
Your husband gives up nothing.

Now, this is not about respect v. disrespect; nor is this about chauvinism v. liberation; nor is it about how to have a happy marriage, empowerment, or conflict resolution.  This is about economics.  Why?  Because, in global matters, the military option is no longer viable—period!   To understand this, let’s look at the hidden agendas.

Your husband does not want the Economics Club meeting at your house.

You don’t want him golfing with his Saturday buddies; you want him to go golfing with his Sunday buddies.

Also, you want your husband out of the house all day Sunday. (Form utility)  Your husband is a good provider, a great Dad, and helps out around the house without being told. However, he does not “show well” at al fresco luncheons with the women from the Economics Club. 

There are also: deliverables and supply-chain considerations.  You want to show the other women that you can handle deliverables.  The condition of the yard—form utility and the locations of the husband—place utility.  You can deliver.


Now on to the US v. Russia Understanding.

The Military Option is over.  Ronald Reagan and his “Star Wars” build-up was not a military campaign but rather an economic one.

The Nuclear Deterrent is nothing more than Diplomatic Legerdemain.


Before Nuclear Deterrence:

The USSR sends troops into Germany.  German soldiers shoot back. The Headlines Read:  Germany and Russia at War.

After Nuclear Deterrence:

The USSR sends troops into Germany. The German soldiers do not shoot back. The Headlines Read:  Nuclear Deterrence Works.


Russia and Syria

I pointed out while back that the negotiations over Syria are not about Syria. They are about something else. When we find out what that something else is, then we can negotiate that and that will resolve the Syrian situation. We now know what that something else is.  However, we don’t understand it.

The fight for the Crimea is about a warm-water port. (Time, Place. Form Utility) In addition, this is not for military purposes. This is for economic purposes.


President Putin is attempting to form a Eurasian Economic Union; ostensibly, as a counterweight to the EuroUnion. Not quite true.  With the condition of the EuroUnion Economy, President Putin is merely seizing an opportunity, not land.

President Putin has been a witness to China’s Economic Success and Diplomatic successes in Africa and in Latin America.

President Putin sees America’s lagging economy.


Indeed, we must also view Russia’s humiliations since the collapse of Ivan Grozny’s Empirical Aspirations.

However, there is still more. 


Insight into Human Nature

Remember, Putin is seizing the opportunity presented by Europe’s weak economy. Europe is too weak to rebuff Russia’s economic overtures to Eastern Europe with Ukraine as a linchpin. And, Putin does not want to be Jimmy Carter to Eastern Europe.


The Bloc shift to the west was due to:

  • ·         The Strength of Reagan v. Gorbachev.
  • ·         The Runaway Success of the US Economy
  • ·         The Seduction of Perceived Freedom
  • ·         The Promise of Unbridled Economic Wealth.



That was then, this is now.
  • ·         The EuroCrisis
  • ·         US Economic Crisis
  • ·         Emerging Economies Slowdown


Now the Bloc Nations will be moving East.


The strict v. the weak.

Over 55 years, I’ve seen this scenario play out so many times that I can’t remember them all. Here are a few for illustration.


Mrs. Reardon, Mrs. Burke, and Smitty.

The first two were 1st and 6th grade teachers, respectively.

Each was known to be a terror. Very strict. Their students complained about the constantly.  However, if other students said anything against the teachers, their students would rebuff the criticisms with a vehement defence.  

Almost the Stockholm Syndrome, but not quite. And, I’ve been party to it, myself.

We had a boss named Smitty.  Not disliked, or held in contempt, but generally ridiculed by his "people".  His people, too, defended him against criticism.  (I personally, had no substantive opinion of him or his abilities.)

Then, one night, delivering "paperwork" to the local HQ, I encountered two upper middle-management Jackasses. After finding out where I was from, and that that was where Smitty had been transferred to, tey began to make snide, sarcastic, belittling remarks about Smitty.  

In response, I painted a glowing picture of Smitty’s success at our Office.  

Not because I liked Smitty, but because I didn’t like the two middle-school smart-asses. or their attitude. 
The difference? I knew I was doing it.


50 years ago, then comedian Bill Cosby, now Dr. William H. Cosby, did a monologue on an album about a shop teacher who used psychology to get students to confess to any wrong doing.

“Yep. Somebody must have a really rotten mother to put a bullet in the furnace.”

“Listen, I didn't put the bullet in the furnace and stop talking about my mother.”



The psychology of it all seems to be universal and universally understood.

After more than a half a century of watching the scenarios played out, I don’t understand why people are confused about what is going on in The Crimea.



The Bloc Nations Flirting East.

  • ·         Disillusioned by the failed promises of Western Economic Success.
  • ·         The Tendency of People to Forget


“It is a Universal Condition. We refuse to accept that all alliances and enmities are transitory.” The Quotations of Slim Fairview.


  • ·         The Excess of US Successes
  • ·         The Witnessing to China’s Successes both Domestic and Global
  • ·         The Display of Western Excessive Military Power & Might & little to show for it.
  • ·         That the Global Military Option is no longer Viable.
  • ·         Economics is the new Weapon of Choice
  • ·         The Fallacy of Nuclear Deterrence



Remember the Quotation of Slim Fairview

“China will succeed because China will do as we did and not as we way.”


Russia will do the same thing with the offer of strong Military Support and Protection and the Promise of Economic Well Being.


Surprise!

Warmest regards,

Slim


Slimviews and Sidestreetjournal are Unfunded, Unsupported, Non-Profit web logs by Robert Asken writing as the blogger known as Slim Fairview

Copyright © 2014 Robert Asken Slim Fairview

All rights reserved.