Europe? Take the Next Right

 

As this country, Europe, and Elsewhere are shifting to the right, we hear much discussion.  A great deal of information.  But little understanding.

Before we start, let's understand Newton's First Law of Physics:  The pendulum swings both ways.

Now, let's start here:

Lenin became leader of Russia by appealing to the downtrodden people of Russia.

Hitler, the downtrodden people of Germany.

Robespierre, the downtrodden people of France.

How did it work out for the people of Russia, Germany, and France?  Not good!.

But one element is common to all three. It is very unlikely that Lenin, HItler, and Robespierre, gained power by citing facts and figures. By providing statistics and analysis.

There is little evidence that the proletariat or the serfs were able read and write.  Or do the math.

Each man appealed to emotion.

"Workers of the world unite. You have nothing to lose but your chains."

Hitler employed the time-tested strategy of scapegoating other people.  

Robespierre employed class warfare.

No one knows when the Russian people figured out: when everyone owns everything no one owns anything.

The Germans found themselves knee deep in war when it was too late to do anything about it.

The French figured it out when they were being led to the Guillotine. And Robespierre? "Hoisted with his own petard".

And those who distinguish between Lenin and HItler are merely quibbling.  I believe the word is specious.

In my article on the passing of the Queen, I focused on succession.  Whether we are discussing The Queen, the CEO, or the Manager on the loading dock, whenever there is a change in leadership, there will be a loosening of the ties that bind.  The loyalties are broken.  New alliances are created.  And even though the Commonwealth is a built in Economic Union, the nations are beginning to move out of the orbit.

When Merkel retired, obedience to the Troika began to dissolve. This, mind you, that there was connection among the ranks.  

But why? Because people believe what they want to believe.

Chamberlain told the Brits, Mr. Hitler has assured me he is not planning to go to war.

Churchill said, The Nazis are planning to go to war.

Chamberlain told the Brits what they wanted to hear.  Churchill told the Brits what they needed to hear.  And the rest, as they say, is history.

"You can't stop the arrival of history.  You can only delay it.  History is coming.  However, the longer you can delay the arrival of history, the better your chances of survival."  Slim Fairview

However, the future?

"That you cannot predict the future is not the proper rebuff to the person who says, get off the tracks there's a train coming."  ~Slim Fairview

Still, societies have an innate mechanism that causes them to move in response or reaction to coming changes before the people know they are coming.

My takeaway from Reflections of a Spawn in Hell by Borisz de Balla is this:  The Eastern Europeans did not embrace the Nazis because they hated the Jews.  They embraced the Nazis because they were terrified of The Soviet Union.  And today, the people of Eastern Europe seem not to want to return to the days of Soviet Military Occupation.

In Italy?  People have forgotten the demise of Benito Mussolini.  The how. The why.

I've pointed out that Merkel had a 1-pronged approach to solving the European Economic Crisis.  Austerity.  And that a 1-pronged approach is not a solution. It is a weapon.  

Soon, the 1-pronged approach became a 2-pronged approach.  Austerity + Open Immigration.  This served to further crush the economies of Southern Europe while doing nothing for the migrants save to leave them in camps with nowhere to go, nothing to do, and not even a place to sit down let alone lie down to sleep.

I stated, Merkel is not a Nazi.  Merkel grew up in East Germany.  Merkel speaks Russian, Merkel ran the German economy by feeding the German Economic Machine at the expense of satellite nations in Southern Europe. How did it work out for them?  Not good.

Now Merkel is gone.  Now, the pendulum is swinging back.

And we continue to forget, each succeeding generation does not always embrace the values, the paradigms, the algorithms of previous generations.

Santayana said, Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

I've said, Those who never learned history are doomed--period!

However, there is more: "Those who remember history are able to repeat it."

In addition to Europe, let's shed a bit of light on China.  China will succeed because China will do as we did and not as we say.

Manifest destiny -> Belt and Road

Trans-Continental Railroad -> HIgh speed railroad

Monroe Doctrine -> South China Sea

Hoover Dam -> Three Rivers Dam

What the Soviet Union lacked that China implemented successfully was The Free Market Paradigm.  

When China elevated 500 million people from poverty to the middle class, China:

Created a consumer class

Created an investor class

Created a vested interest in the success of Beijing's policies

Created cohesion among the Chinese people.

Russian did not count on a solidarity of its former satellite states.  And China's reticence on the invasion of Ukraine is one indicator of China's perceptions of future events.

The pendulum swings both ways; but,

"There are no unintended consequences. Only unwanted consequences." 

~ Slim Fairview

Europe will shift to the right.

America will shift to the right.

Facts and figures will not supercede the appeal to emotion.

Best wishes,

Slim.

Box 33

Pen Argyl, PA 18072

Etats-Unis

The Quotations of Slim Fairview

Copyright © 2022 Robert Asken

All rights reserved

CNBC: Circa 1862

 

For Those Who Understand Metaphors:

What if the 24 hour news cycle existed in 1864 and Europe watched the American Civil War unfolding before them?

Middle East RSVP

O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us

To see oursels as ithers see us!

It wad frae mony a blunder free us,

An' foolish notion:

As I was gazing into my Liquid Crystal Ball, I had the opportunity to see myself in a previous life.  I am watching television when my programme is interrupted by a special report from Brussels.

The UN Security Council is holding an emergency meeting over the conditions in America.  World Leaders are condemning the atrocities of the Civil War citing over 50,000 dead at Gettysburg and now, after the burning of Atlanta, Sherman’s March to the Sea.

On official said, in exchange for remaining anonymous, “Will we wait until every American has been Shermanised before we take action?”

Recent reports have confirmed that 50,000 American’s died in the three day battle at Gettysburg and almost 9,000 Americans were killed in the burning of Atlanta.

Leaders in England and France have reported that they are already sending warships to the Gulf of Mexico and the Potomac Basin, but claimed this was only to prevent a blockade to prevent the shipment of tobacco and cotton to Europe.  They did, however, admit that they were discussing putting boots on the ground to intervene.

The Russian Ambassador to the UN has stated that he will veto any resolution that involves military intervention.  He went on to issue this statement:  “It took the Americans from 1776 to 1789—thirteen years—to create a constitution.  This is a Civil War, and Europe has no business interfering with American domestic problems.”

The Greek Ambassador to the UN said, “We had a democracy 3,000 years ago.  We may have made some mistakes, but we learned from them.  We will be only too happy to send a delegation to Washington to help the Americans set up a stable democracy.”

The Italian Ambassador to the UN issued a statement saying, “Our government supports the initiative proposed by the Greek government and will be happy to participate.  After all, we had a democracy 2,000 years ago. We too, made a few mistakes, but we also learned from them and want to help protect the American people from this carnage.”

England’s Foreign Minister denied reports that the warships en route to America are carrying cannons to bombard Washington, saying “We are not taking the cannon-fire option off the table.  We are only saying that it is an option that we are prepared to exercise if the carnage in America does not stop.”

The Ambassadors from Spain and Portugal will be arriving in Brussels soon, carrying a joint proposal for a cease-fire but conceded, “There is little hope.”

On a related note,  A statement from Sandringham House:

The King, The Emperor, and The Czar issued the following joint statement.

In fewer than 100 years, Democracy in America has led to this Civil War of horrific proportions. 
An Annus horribilis.  Therefore we are planning to send a delegation to meet with Presidents Lincoln and Davis and with Generals Grant and Lee to discuss the establishment of Monarchy in America.

The nice thing about the Liquid Crystal Ball is that is reveals history as it might have been.  It does not, however, reveal history as it will be.

SANTAYAN “Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.”

SLIM FAIRVIEW “Those who never learned history are doomed—Period!” 

Fin

Warmest regards,

Slim

Bob Asken

Box 33 

Pen Argyl, PA 

18072

LinkedIn Profile

slimfairview@yahoo.com

If you find anything here to be helpful, please don't hesitate to send me a really tricked out Mac Book and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.  Slim.

Copyright (c) 2013  Bob Asken:
All Rights Reserved

Is A Traitor in Mr. Putin's Midst?

Is it possible that Mr. Putin has a traitor in his midst?

That the traitor was in cahoots with the airplane bomber?

Did this traitor want to look more important in Mr. Putin's eyes to make himself more important to Mr. Putin and to Moscow?


The Chancellor is not a Nazi.

• The Chancellor grew up in East Germany

• The Chancellor speaks Russian

• The Chancellor appears to have been using the old Soviet Model of  running the German economy at the expense of the satellite nations in Southern Europe.

When deficit spending in Southern Europe faded away, the Chancellor made overtures to Poland and to the Ukraine.


The Chancellor appears to have used austerity to dominate Southern Europe.

Whenever anyone spoke about growth, mysterious, unfounded insinuations of impropriety arose.


Beware the Chancellor.

Remember my article,  Beware: The Chancellor is Consolidating Power


However, the idea of capital investment, economic development, and growth began to emerge.


Remember my article: Merkel Invades Russia

Remember the Chancellor's Propaganda Putsch outlined in Merkel's Big Lies


Is it possible that The Chancellor is in cahoots with the possible traitor in Mr. Putin's administration?

Is the Chancellor inviting 800,000 refugees into Germany to create a staging ground for terrorist attacks?

In addition, the move would help to grind down the economies of Southern Europe.


Remember Prime Minister Chamberlain returning from Munich to say the Chancellor is not planning to go to war?

Remember Prime Minister Biden returning from Berlin to say, the Chancellor wants to be our friend?


The paradigm:

• Julius Caesar (et tu Brute)

• President Kennedy and the Bay of Pigs 

• Allegations that intelligence reports inflated the possession of weapons of mass destruction by Saddam Hussein

• The climax of the movie The Godfather. "The one who arranges the meeting is the traitor."

The paradigm is not new.  A subordinate attempting to inflate his importance is only one example. (Rasputin?)


Why does it work?

Because no on believes it can be happening.



And, to Mr. Putin, remember the words of Shakespeare in Julius Caesar.

"Methinks young Cassius has a lean an hungry look. Such men are dangerous."


Is is possible that there is a traitor in Mr. Putin's midst?  It is possible.  I wouldn't hurt to check.  If there is none, all is well. If a traitor is found, all will be better than it would have been if none had checked.


And, do remember the brief-case under Mr. Hitler's meeting table.


Regards,


Slim.

@slimfairview

Obama's Win!

Obama’s Win

Can you see it now—the President’s handling of foreign affairs?

Let’s start with President Obama’s handling of Libya.  

Some of the criticism was unfounded. The President (as with many of his predecessors) was criticised for playing the world’s policeman and insisting that he allow allies to shoulder some of the burden.  Subsequent to which, in Slim Fairview style, he says, “Okay.” And proceeds to allow our NATO Allies should some of the burden.

The Critics, criticise the President for leading from behind.

Russia

I’ve stated before, “The military option is no longer viable.”  I also stated, “The economic zero-sum game isn’t going to work anymore.”  And, “Putin is engaged in an Economic Theatre of Operation.”

President Obama

In short, The President knows, never take a sucker bet.

To understand this, we must look to the European Economic Crisis, the dissolution of the southern country’s economies, and The Chancellor’s efforts to draw The Ukraine and other Eastern Bloc nations into the EuroUnion. 

Let’s be honest.  Deficit spending in Southern Europe fuels the German economy and The Chancellor’s economic war machine.  With the Southern economies virtually desolate, Merkel needs Eastern Europe to fuel the German economy.

Merkel’s strategy is too obvious for words:  Keep the German Economy strong until the global economy turns around, and then declare victory for her strategies and her tenure.

Merkelism: An economic system based on the fear that someone somewhere is earning a living.”

President Obama knows that President Putin is engaged in Economic Warfare. Hence, the U.S. led sanctions against Russia is economic warfare.  Also, The Chancellor and her economic supply lines are cut off.

The President Knows…

• Restraint:  Never take a sucker bet.

• Prudence: Never talk into a trap.

• Patience:  Let your opponent make the first move.

If numbers two and three don’t sound familiar, then watch The Seven Samurai.  Twice.

I also posted, on LinkedIn, ”Economic self-interest will play a role in resolving the many problems currently manifesting themselves in the Middle East.  Economic Self-Interest.  That appears to have come into play.

What might be some of President Obama’s Prognostications?

• Sanctions against Russia may impede an oil deal with cash-strapped Iran.

• China can afford to delay a Nat/Gas deal with Russia.

• Russia’s concerns over The Ukraine may cut off Russian Aid to Syria.

• Economic Sanctions will diminish the potency of a Euro-Economic recovery.

The President

• Let our allies participate

• Refused to be goaded into taking a sucker bet.

• Refused to be goaded into revealing strategy.

• Refused to walk into a trap.

• Displayed the wisdom of letting his opponents make the first move.

There is hope…..

Warmest regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2014   Robert Asken as Slim Fairview

All Rights Reserved.

The Chinese Work Ethic

Santayana:  “Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.”

Slim Fairview: “Those who remember history are able to repeat it.”

As you look back over history, you see the ebb and flow.

The few may be oppressed by the multitude, but the multitude may not be oppressed by the few—not for very long, anyway.

I say this because we’ve witnessed two major paradigm shifts that will cause a major change in the future of history: The collapse of the Soviet Union and the rapid rise in China’s economy.

“One picture is worth 10,000 words” ~ Old Chinese saying.

The world saw the pictures of Ronald Reagan at the Berlin Wall and of the Berlin Wall being torn down, and that for 40 years only One Billion people had been ground beneath Soviet Military occupation; and that the people of Russia and of Eastern Europe liberated themselves.

The Power of the Multitude

What we’ve witnessed in China is similar.  China has focused the power, the will, and the determination of the Chinese People to drive China’s Capital Investment, Economic Development, and Growth.  The Chinese People have liberated themselves (and others) from the shackles of poverty.

We Are Slow to Catch On

“When people work for themselves, they benefit the group.  When people work for the group, they benefit no one.”  ~ Slim Fairview.

• Pilgrim leaders learned it.

• Soviet leaders did not

• Chinese leaders certainly understand it

          &

• South Korea speaks for itself!

History

In the mid 1800s, America used what was then called Chinese coolie labour to build the Trans-Continental Railroad:  Chinese workers building an American railroad in America for the American people.  Now, Chinese workers are building a Chinese railroad in China for the Chinese people—for themselves!

By transforming China’s economy into a free-market style economy, Chinese leaders are recapitulating what we once referred to as The Protestant Work Ethic; or, if you prefer, the American Work Ethic.  Now? The Chinese Work ethic; or, if you prefer, the Asian Work Ethic.  It is still the same thing.

• Post WW II Japan

• China since Nixon’s Overture in Asia Major

• South Korea

Now, What about Russia?  Mr. Putin is transforming Russia.  And, in so doing, he is establishing a template for Emerging Nations.

Mr. Putin will continue with his Economic Theatre of Operation; Visible Hand, and B-School Strategic Planning. And he will do it successfully.

Emerging Nations will embrace the template being established by Mr. Putin.

China, Russia, and Emerging Nations will succeed because China, Russia, and Emerging Nations will…Do as we did and Not as we say.

Call it the Chinese work ethic if you will, or the protestant work ethic if you won’t, just don’t go off topic.

Warmest regards, 

Slim

Slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2014  Robert Asken as Slim Fairview

All rights reserved.

The Visible Hand

THE VISIBLE HAND

Limiting demand is the visible hand of economics.  Why?  Because “The invisible hand” loses potency with rising affluence.

“Rich people are insulated from price increases, but not from supply shortages.”  ~ Slim Fairview.

The Invisible Hand

The theory of the invisible hand says, “If there are more carpenters than needed, the wages of the carpenters will fall (supply exceeds demand) and many carpenters will be unemployed except for the fact that surfeit of carpenters means a dearth of plumbers.  The demand for plumbers and the higher wages arising from demand exceeding supply means people will become plumbers instead of carpenters and “the invisible hand” of the market will handle this…more or less.

The Visible Hand is entirely different.  By limiting the demand, you stabilize the economics of your entire enterprise.

Profits v. Growth

In this paradigm, maximising profits is not the overriding concern—stability is the overriding concern.  This is because stability is necessary for growth.

This is analogous to an investment portfolio.  You have growth stocks, you have income stocks.  At the outset, you want growth stocks.  When you get older, you want income stocks.

Think of the Sharpe-Markowitz Efficiency Curve.  Risk v. Return.

The visible hand is the growth stock portfolio.

In the early days of B-School (my early days) growth was described as having an inherent risk factor.

If you grow to fast (faster than your market) you tie up capital  and reduce your ROI. (Return on Investment.)

If you grow too slowly (if your market grows faster than you do) you lose customers, cut revenue, and lose market share.

Let’s review Mr. Putin’s Visible Hand.

MERGERS

Forming a Eurasian Economic Union.

ACQUISITIONS

Crimea

Mr. Putin is taking advantage of a competitor’s weakness (The EuroUnion) to expand Market Share and to Increase Revenue.

SALES/REVENUE

Mr. Putting stabilises revenue by limiting demand with a deal to sell natural gas to China.

SUPPLY CHAIN STABILISATION

Mr. Putin establishes a stable supply of oil with an oil deal with Iran.

MARKET PENETRATION AND DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS

The acquisition of the Crimea includes a warm water part and accesses markets.

Mr. Putin’s Economic Theatre of Operation is a Textbook Lesson on Strategic Planning.

• Market Analysis

• Mergers and Acquisitions

• Competitor Evaluation

• Supply Chain Stabilisation

• Distribution Channels

• Market Penetration

• Sales and Marketing

• The SWOT Test.

Mr. Putin’s SWOT Test

Strengths

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

STRENGTHS

• Shared History and Culture with Eastern Europe

• Natural Gas Supply

• Natural Gas Deal with Germany

• Leveraged Capital Investment Opportunities in Russia

• Stable Government

WEAKNESSES

• Late arrival into the Global Free Market Paradigm

• Climate

• Lack of Warm Water Port(s)

• Activist Minority Stakeholder Dissent

OPPORTUNITIES

• Weak EuroUnion Economy

• Eastern Bloc’s Need for an Economic Union

• Iran Oil Sanctions

• China’s Growing Energy Needs

• The Crimea

• Slow U.S. and European Economies

• Emerging Nations

THREATS

• Trade competition from China

• Competition from Cheap-Labour Markets

• Sanctions by Western Nations

• Weak Global Economy

All of these describe THE VISIBLE HAND.  Not as practiced by a company within an industry or an economy, but rather by nations among nations in a global economy.  And right now, Mr. Putin is establishing a template for emerging nations to follow.

Warmest Regards,

Slim

The blogger known as Slim Fairview.

slimfairview@yahoo.com

ADDITIONAL READING

Putin's Overture in Eurasia Minor

Mr. Putin's Economic Theatre of Operation

Limiting Demand: Slim's Paradigm

Copyright © 2014 Robert Asken writing as Slim Fairview

All rights reserved.